Bitcoin has made a rebound recently, rising back to the high-$90,000 and low-$80,000 range after a brief dip to the mid-$80,000s. This movement has eased some short-term selling pressure; however, many analysts are cautious, suggesting that this rally alone does not signify the start of a new bull market. Instead, they emphasize the importance of observing a turnaround in various deeper market indicators to determine if a genuine risk-on sentiment is taking hold.
As of the latest update, Bitcoin was priced around $89,500, marking a 1.4% increase in the last 24 hours. Despite this uptick, the cryptocurrency remains more than 7% lower over the past two weeks, reflecting ongoing selling pressure since its peak near $126,000 late last year. Currently, Bitcoin is down nearly 13% year to date and sits about 29% beneath its all-time high.
The long-term outlook for Bitcoin appears somewhat positive, despite these recent pullbacks. Data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin continues to trade above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a critical long-term indicator closely monitored by institutional and macro-centric traders. Historical data suggest that trading above this EMA is typically associated with bullish market conditions, while dips below it may signal bearish phases. The consistent upward trajectory of the 200-day EMA suggests that long-term demand remains intact, making recent price retreats appear corrective rather than indicative of a major trend reversal.
However, there are signs of caution among institutional investors, particularly those involved in U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Since October 2025, ETF holdings have declined by over $6 billion—an 8% drop from peak levels—marking a significant stress test for this emerging cohort of investors. According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is currently trading near the ETF’s realized price of about $86,600, representing the average cost basis for ETF buyers. Analysts consider this price range a psychological pivot; maintaining levels above this threshold tends to bolster investor confidence, while falling below it may trigger redemptions as profit potential diminishes.
Despite some easing of outflows and relatively stable ETF realized prices, sustained inflows remain elusive, leaving institutional demand cautious.
Meanwhile, the cost basis for recent Bitcoin buyers, particularly short-term holders, may offer insights into market stability. Data from BitBo indicates that Bitcoin prices are still above the Short-Term Holder realized price, estimated to be in the low-$60,000 to low-$70,000 range. This circumstance suggests that most new buyers are not yet in profit, which may deter panic selling and facilitate buying during dips. Historically, trading above this cost basis aligns with bull-market environments, while consistent breaches below it can point to shifts toward bear markets.
Recent reports also indicate that Bitcoin struggled to maintain its position around the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $96,500, resulting in a modest pullback that reflects patterns seen during previous bear market phases in 2018 and 2022. Currently, only about 19.5% of short-term holder supply is at a loss—significantly lower than levels typically associated with extensive capitulation among investors. Nonetheless, concerns remain regarding the increasing trend of Bitcoin supply held at a loss, a pattern that has historically preceded deeper bear markets, even as prices remain buoyant before stabilizing.
Analysts continue to highlight declining on-chain demand, a drop in retail participation, and macroeconomic uncertainties, including apprehensions regarding U.S. liquidity conditions, which all contribute to the overall market sentiment. As Bitcoin navigates these complex dynamics, watchers are keen to see how the next phase unfolds in this turbulent landscape.
