Bitcoin (BTC) has successfully reclaimed the significant $80,000 mark just ahead of the upcoming releases of US inflation data, following a notable recovery after a brief selloff influenced by rising geopolitical tensions and substantial ETF outflows. According to TradingView data, Bitcoin surged back above the $80,000 threshold on Friday, after dipping to an intraday low of approximately $79,250. In a stark development, CoinGlass data revealed that over $289 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated during the market dip.
This decline in Bitcoin’s price coincided with reports indicating heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which have had unsettling effects on broader risk markets, including a retreat of the S&P 500 from its recent record highs. Additionally, the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States reported net outflows totaling $277.5 million on Thursday, breaking a five-day streak of inflows amounting to nearly $1.7 billion, as per data from SoSoValue. Among the notable redemptions, Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund faced the brunt, leading with $129 million in outflows, while BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust saw $98 million pulled out.
Despite these pressures, buyers were able to defend the $78,000 to $79,000 range, considered a critical support zone by several market analysts. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows emphasized the importance of holding this zone for a potential bounce-back, warning that a drop below these levels could lead to a more severe price correction.
As trading shifted to European and U.S. sessions, Bitcoin managed to stabilize above the critical support level. This stabilization was supported by exchange supply trends, with reports indicating that nearly 100,000 BTC had transitioned into private custody within the past 90 days. This shift reduced the balances on exchanges, indicating that institutional spot demand was actively absorbing available supply.
Volatility risks continue to be a topic of discussion among analysts. The rebound occurred as traders digested the U.S. Employment Situation report for April, which indicated an addition of 115,000 jobs—surpassing consensus estimates—while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%. QCP Capital’s weekly report highlighted that perpetual swap markets are currently pricing more than a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by April 2027, with expectations for earlier rate cuts being postponed, amid ongoing energy-driven inflation concerns precipitated by renewed uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East ceasefire negotiations.
Research analyst Jake Kennis from Nansen pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent recovery above $81,000 was largely fueled by institutional spot purchases and liquidations of short positions rather than by retail activity. He also noted that funding rates have remained comparatively low during this price rally, and trading activity on platforms like HyperLiquid showed only minor positioning ahead of the payrolls report.
Analysts are remaining vigilant about Bitcoin’s longer-term structure, particularly after the recent bounce back. Michaël van de Poppe suggested that the recent price retracement was not unexpected, considering previous strong sessions of growth, and maintained that the overarching trend could still favor additional upward movement as long as support levels hold firm. He highlighted $76,000 as a crucial level that needs to be protected.
Others, such as Rekt Capital, noted that Bitcoin is still navigating between its 21-month and 50-month exponential moving averages after a relief rally from the lower macro support band. Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin often spends extended periods between these averages before establishing a more definitive trend direction.
With a close watch on forthcoming U.S. inflation figures, including the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports expected next week, market participants are eager for insights on interest rate expectations and risk sentiment within the crypto sphere.
