Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $76,350, surpassing several key cost-basis levels for investors. The average cost basis for one-to-three-month holders stands at $75,620, which indicates that a significant proportion of recent buyers are now near breakeven. Additionally, this price point is just below the US spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) cost basis of $76,700, highlighting a critical threshold for market sentiment.
The cost basis for short-term holders (STH) and the adjusted realized price are both situated around this range, emphasizing the importance of the $75,000 level as a near-term support pivot. Historically, this $75,620 level served as a barrier earlier in March when Bitcoin’s price plummeted from $75,600 to $62,000 within a fortnight. Now, it seems poised to function as a potential support point.
Currently, Bitcoin has closed above an adjusted realized price of $72,300, which accounts for the average acquisition cost of circulating supply, excluding coins held for more than seven years. This upward movement places many investors into profit territory, with analysts noting that a weekly close above this adjusted realized price signals stronger long-term investor confidence in Bitcoin.
In commentary on the market dynamics, analyst Darkfost remarked that achieving a standard deviation above the average cost basis could serve as a bullish indicator, suggesting a growing conviction among investors and encouraging them to hold onto their assets.
Adding another layer of complexity, the weighted average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs hovers near $76,700. This positions the current trading price close to a crucial zone of recent institutional accumulation, while the cost basis for short-term holders sits higher at approximately $81,800. If Bitcoin’s price can maintain levels above this threshold, it could bolster confidence among investors.
The clustering of these overlapping cost bases around $75,000 means that the price is particularly sensitive to market flows in this vicinity, intensifying its status as a key support area. This has resulted in a delicate balance within a narrow price range, where any significant movement could impact investor sentiment greatly.
According to derivatives data, recent liquidity bands have outlined a near-term trading corridor with the established support level at $75,000. Cumulative long liquidation risks are concentrated around $74,000, holding nearly $2.69 billion at stake, while short liquidations around $80,000 total about $4.48 billion.
Furthermore, a recent fluctuation between $77,873 and $74,868 led to the liquidation of $494 million in positions, including $347 million in long positions. Analyst CW noted that while high-leverage longs have decreased, a larger concentration of short liquidations remains above the $80,000 mark. This behavior suggests that the $74,000 to $80,000 price band will continue to anchor positioning, with both sides effectively clustering around key cost-basis levels.
