A recent study by CoinGecko spanning from May 2013 to May 2026 reveals intriguing insights into Bitcoin’s performance on U.S. federal holidays. The analysis, which included 4,753 daily price observations, indicated that Bitcoin (BTC) tends to deliver its most substantial single-day returns on these holidays, particularly highlighting New Year’s Day as exceptionally profitable.
On New Year’s Day, Bitcoin recorded an average next-day return of +2.01%, coupled with an impressive win rate of 84.6%. This trend is not an isolated case; the overall average next-day return on U.S. holidays reached +0.77%, significantly surpassing the typical +0.19% return observed during non-holiday days.
Columbus Day also showed a commendable performance, mirroring New Year’s Day’s win rate at 84.6%, while yielding an average next-day return of +1.70%. Other holidays such as Christmas Day and Labor Day provided gains of +1.46% (53.8% win rate) and +1.22% (69.2% win rate), respectively. However, not all holidays aligned with this positive trend. Martin Luther King Jr. Day saw a negative average return of -0.84%, which was notably influenced by a significant -18.65% drop in Bitcoin’s price on January 15, 2018. Similarly, Independence Day averaged a loss of -0.26%, with win rates dipping below 50% for both holidays.
CoinGecko’s researchers suggest that the positive performance during the New Year may stem from fresh capital allocations in January and the reversal of tax-loss selling that typically occurs in December. This trend persisted through varying Bitcoin prices, which ranged from $313 in 2015 to a peak of $93,507 in 2025, despite differing market outlooks for 2026 between bullish and bearish investors.
In analyzing the impact of weekdays on Bitcoin’s performance, the findings showed a more muted effect. Both Monday and Wednesday produced average next-day returns of +0.38%, while only Thursday reflected a decline with an average return of -0.09%. Interestingly, the difference between weekday and weekend returns was minimal at just 0.01%, indicating that the documented seasonal effects, such as the “Uptober” phenomenon, might hold greater significance than typical weekday performance.
Over a year-long horizon, every weekday provided returns ranging from 142.15% to 144.56%, a spread that CoinGecko deemed negligible in the context of Bitcoin’s inherent volatility. This leads to the conclusion that while holiday timings may offer modest benefits in short-term trading, the persistence of patterns like the holiday effects remains a topic for further investigation, especially as the market approaches the upcoming January period.
