Recent analysis from VanEck’s “Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report indicates that the current Bitcoin sell-off is largely attributed to mid-cycle holders rather than the long-term, established investors in the market. According to the report, the wallets implicated in this wave of selling are those that have not moved their coins in the last five years, signaling a shift in trading activity primarily among newer investors. In contrast, older wallets have shown remarkable stability despite a prevailing sense of bearish sentiment in the market.
As the report suggests, coins that haven’t changed hands for over five years continue to age into this long-term holder category, adding approximately 278,000 BTC in the last two years. This trend underscores the underlying conviction among long-term holders, suggesting that many remain committed to their investments despite market fluctuations.
The current selling pressure comes as Bitcoin trades near its lowest levels in several months. At a recent price point of around $86,696, BTC has fallen by 3.2% within the past 24 hours, marking a staggering 31.2% decline from its all-time high of $126,080 recorded on October 6, according to data from CoinGecko. Analysts point to a variety of factors contributing to this notable downward trend, including forced liquidations, distribution by long-term holders, and increased volatility in offshore derivatives markets.
Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, emphasized that a combination of long-term selling by seasoned, high-balance holders and an uncertain economic climate are significant contributors to the current market conditions. He mentioned that these older holders have been progressively selling their assets over several weeks, leading to an oversupply in the market.
Adding to the analysis, Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, noted that Bitcoin’s volatility is further exacerbated by aggressive trading behaviors on offshore platforms. She pointed out that professional trading firms often engage in practices such as spoofing and laddering, which are strategies designed to manipulate the order book and spur rapid price movements.
According to the VanEck report, there has been a notable decline in the 3–5 year age band of Bitcoin, with a drop of 32% over the past two years, attributed to the change in addresses of these coins. This trend reflects increased turnover among cycle traders rather than capitulation from long-term holders. Additionally, the report highlighted a reset in speculative positioning in the market. Since October 9, open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has decreased by 20% in Bitcoin terms and 32% in USD terms, resulting in funding rates that mirror those seen during previous market corrections.
In a countertrend, smaller wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have seen their balances grow by 9% over the past six months and by 23% over the last year, even as the largest whale cohort appears to be trimming their positions. This juxtaposition of stability among long-term holders, alongside the rotation within the cohort and capitulation in the futures market, indicates that Bitcoin may be entering a “reset” phase. Historically, such resets have often paved the way for tactical rebounds, hinting at potential opportunities for investors willing to navigate the current market landscape.
