In a notable transformation of the bitcoin market, the supply held by so-called “conviction buyers” has reached nearly 4 million BTC, according to recent data from BitGo, as reported by Bitfinex. This figure reflects a staggering 300% increase since the end of 2025, indicating an extensive transfer of the cryptocurrency’s realized value into large, low-activity entities. As a result, the accumulated conviction capital is now valued at approximately $320 billion, based on bitcoin’s current trading price near $80,000.
Market analyst Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, noted the significance of this data, despite the lack of clarity surrounding BitGo’s “conviction buyers” metric. He highlighted the historical trend that shows how periods of reduced liquid supply, combined with rising demand, have often resulted in substantial price expansions for bitcoin.
This current accumulation trend boasts the largest surge in high-conviction buying over a two-quarter period since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Conviction buyers are characterized as long-term investors, encompassing both individuals and institutions.
Importantly, these long-term holdings do not include an estimated 5.6 million BTC that have remained inactive for over a decade, as clarified by Jameson Lopp, a core bitcoin developer. According to CoinDesk, the total amount of bitcoin in circulation currently stands at 20.03 million.
Analysis from Bitfinex underscores that an increasing proportion of bitcoin’s realized value is exiting circulation on crypto exchanges, instead becoming concentrated among entities that conduct infrequent transactions, regardless of market volatility. This shift indicates that long-term holders—ranging from large institutional “whales” to corporate entities—are actively absorbing the available bitcoin supply. Notably, one such entity, MicroStrategy (MSTR), has emerged as the largest publicly traded corporate holder of bitcoin, recently amplifying its total holdings to 818,869 BTC, which it obtained for nearly $62 billion.
This migration of supply into low-activity accounts effectively reduces the liquid bitcoin available on the market, potentially leading to a “supply shock” scenario. Supporting this viewpoint, research from CEX.IO reveals that nearly 70% of recent bitcoin purchases are now profitable, a metric that often acts as a psychological barrier against sell-offs.
CEX.IO further suggested that as new bitcoin investors see their holdings appreciate, their motivation to liquidate during minor price dips diminishes, contributing to price stabilization.
Ran Hammer, vice president of Business Development at Orbs, emphasized the shift in mindset among bitcoin holders, asserting that individuals who acquire bitcoin are increasingly inclined to accumulate rather than sell, especially with emerging ways to borrow against existing holdings.
In a separate commentary, Connor Howe, CEO and co-founder of Enso, remarked that the narrative around BTC’s long-term scarcity is evolving from mere theory to a tangible market structure. With flows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional accumulation becoming more entrenched than speculative, a larger share of bitcoin supply is indeed migrating into “conviction hands.” Howe anticipated that this trend could make future scarcity more apparent when demand surges once again.
