Roughly 10.83 million Bitcoin (BTC) are currently held at a loss, indicating that their holders have paid more than the current market price. Conversely, 9.22 million BTC remain in profit, based on data from Glassnode. This marks a significant shift, as it is the first time that the loss-making supply has surpassed the profitable supply since the current market cycle began. The data highlights the extent of the correction from Bitcoin’s peak of $109,000 reached in January.
Historically, such crossovers in supply distribution have coincided with periods of peak financial stress and capitulation among newer investors. Typically, these shifts signal the transition of coins from weaker hands to stronger ones, as only those holders with high conviction tend to retain their assets during downturns rather than sell at a loss. This phenomenon is evidenced by an increase in long-term holder accumulation and rising wallet-cohort balances across several size brackets, which have been observed alongside the current decline in profitability.
As of Thursday, Bitcoin traded at $61,361, reflecting a modest increase of 0.7% for the day and 2.5% over the week. However, this price is still approximately 51% lower than its all-time high of $126,080 recorded in October 2025. In comparison, Ethereum saw an increase of 4.2%, reaching $1,702, while Solana emerged as a leading performer, climbing 18.6% to $80.44, with trading volumes exceeding $3.6 billion.
Whether the recent supply crossover indicates a market bottom is still unclear. Similar occurrences were noted during the downturns of 2018-19 and 2022, which preceded extended periods of consolidation before a strong recovery. It is essential to note that these patterns alone do not dictate market direction; a reversal into upward momentum typically requires supportive factors such as returns in ETF flows and easing macro pressures to validate the accumulation signals seen in current market conditions.
