Traders involved in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) transactions, specifically those holding between 100 and 10,000 BTC, have reported staggering realized losses averaging $337 million per day during the first quarter of 2026. This marks the most challenging quarter for these investors since 2022, based on data provided by Glassnode.
The substantial losses come as Bitcoin’s price has plummeted more than 20%. This downturn mirrors the situation in 2022, when large investors, commonly referred to as “whales,” last encountered comparable losses. Notably, long-term holders of Bitcoin are also parting with their assets at a loss, signaling a potential capitulation phase that might lead to further decreases in the cryptocurrency’s value.
In total, Bitcoin whales and “sharks,” defined as investors holding 100 to 1,000 BTC, have recorded approximately $30.91 billion in realized losses throughout the year. Realized losses refer to the total dollar value lost when Bitcoin is sold on-chain below its initial purchase price. During the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin sharks incurred losses averaging $188.5 million daily, while whales accounted for another $147.5 million per day. This pronounced trend of losses among these larger entities ranks among the most serious on record, only surpassed by the second quarter of 2022, which saw a daily average of around $396 million in losses.
The cryptocurrency market’s downward trajectory in 2022 was largely driven by a cascade of adverse events, including the collapse of Terra, the freezing of Celsius assets, and the failure of Three Arrows Capital, which eroded both liquidity and investor confidence. In 2026, the pressure on Bitcoin’s value originated from various factors such as inflation concerns driven by the ongoing Iran conflict, fears surrounding quantum security, and overarching challenges in the AI-led risk trade.
As large investors respond to these mounting macroeconomic threats by cutting their losses, expectations grow for a further decline in Bitcoin’s price. This sentiment raises the likelihood of a bear market reminiscent of that in 2022, with some analysts predicting a potential price bottom in the $40,000 to $50,000 range by the end of the year.
Adding to the bearish outlook, Glassnode’s metrics on long-term holders, those who possess their Bitcoin for more than six months, show an elevated level of realized losses. This measure currently stands at about $200 million in losses per day on a 30-day average, a figure that has remained consistently high since November 2025. Analysts suggest that a drop to levels below $25 million per day would be a more convincing sign of a reduction in selling pressure and could precede a transition to a more stable bull market.
Given the current dynamics, analysts are increasingly vocal about the prospects for a deeper Bitcoin correction, creating uncertainty for investors and raising questions about where the cryptocurrency market may head next.
