Bitcoin has demonstrated a sustained bullish market structure over the past three weeks, suggesting a potential extension of its ongoing rally. According to a recent report from Glassnode, a market intelligence firm, the Risk Index—a proprietary metric that measures systemic risk on a scale of 0 to 100—currently sits at zero, indicating a “cleared risk landscape.” This is the lowest possible level, signifying a more stable market environment. The Risk Index also serves as a primary indicator of market health, with a critical 25-point threshold delineating low-risk from high-risk regimes.
The analysis indicates that the Moderate Strategy, designed to capture upside momentum and exit positions when conviction wanes, has shifted from “Moderate” to “High Confidence.” This alignment signals a bullish market regime buoyed by increasing inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) and strong demand from spot buyers. Research analyst Lacie Zhang from Bitget Wallet advised that this presents an excellent opportunity for strategic accumulation, rather than waiting for further dips. Zhang maintains a strong conviction for a positive close to 2026, driven by improved market structure and institutional interest that could push Bitcoin toward new all-time highs.
Further bolstering the bullish outlook, Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, remarked that as geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, ease, bullish market sentiment is likely to intensify. This momentum has already propelled Bitcoin to a price of $79,388, its highest level in over three months.
Investor sentiment has shown notable improvement, with the Fear and Greed Index ascending from “extreme fear” in early April to a state of “fear.” Additionally, users on the prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, now estimate a 74% likelihood that Bitcoin will extend its rally toward $84,000, a significant increase from 62% at the start of the week. Ethereum mirrors this positive sentiment, with users assigning a 54% chance that it will reach $3,000 next.
Zhang forecasts that breaking and maintaining a price above $80,000 would serve as a crucial technical and psychological catalyst, paving the way for further gains toward $90,000 and potentially $100,000. Presently, Bitcoin is trading around $77,800, while Ethereum is at approximately $2,330, reflecting a slight decline of 0.5% and 2.9% respectively over the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinGecko.
However, analysts caution that despite the favorable Indicators, vigilance is necessary. Mei highlighted risks including the potential resurgence of conflicts in the Middle East, oil flow restrictions, and high inflation that could trigger interest rate hikes. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to pose a significant threat to market stability.
The recent uptrend has resulted in 54% of new buyers entering profitable territory, according to Glassnode’s latest findings. These new buyers have reached a level that historically indicates the exhaustion of bear market rallies. Furthermore, the realized profit for short-term holders has surged to $4.4 million, a figure three times greater than the $1.5 million benchmark that has marked local tops throughout the year, signaling a need for caution in the absence of substantial demand catalysts.
As the market explores this “cleared risk landscape,” the crucial question remains: what fundamental catalysts—such as legislative measures like the CLARITY Act, Federal Reserve rate cuts, or a sustainable truce in the Middle East—will drive Bitcoin above the $80,000 mark? Until such catalysts emerge, while the risk landscape appears stable, the road ahead may still face challenges.
