Bitcoin’s recent price movements signify a more volatile phase, according to Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank. He emphasizes that while market sentiment may be mired in “maximum fear,” the underlying fundamentals remain robust. Notably, despite a significant market downturn, BlackRock’s IBIT holdings only fell by less than 5% in Bitcoin terms.
Dori reassures investors that the recent dramatic price dip should not be interpreted as the conclusion of the Bitcoin cycle, but rather as an indication of maturation within the market. In his correspondence to clients, he described the current volatility as a natural evolution as Bitcoin transitions from a speculative asset to a more legitimate financial instrument. “From a cycle perspective, we see a maturing phase rather than an ending one,” he stated. He noted that while sharper fluctuations are likely, the overall macro environment remains favorable.
According to Dori, the recent correction in Bitcoin’s value appears excessive rather than indicative of structural problems. He highlighted that despite a tense market atmosphere and significant deleveraging across various platforms, key on-chain metrics are improving. For instance, the number of Bitcoin addresses engaged in consistent accumulation has nearly doubled since October, and reserves on exchanges have plummeted.
However, Bitcoin has experienced a decline of over 20% from its highs in October, erasing most of its gains for the year and dragging the broader cryptocurrency market into negative territory. This sharp selloff has been exacerbated by a mix of macroeconomic shocks, stresses within market structure, and liquidity pressures. Market analysts express varying opinions on Bitcoin’s future trajectory—Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence suggested a price target of $50,000 for 2026, while crypto bull Arthur Hayes has implied further downside risks.
Dori attributes the steep decline to a series of negative catalysts, which have emerged prominently by the end of 2025. Notably, the renewed intensity of the US-China trade war and the prolonged US government shutdown have created uncertainty, stalling significant data releases. Additionally, labor data exceeding expectations has diminished hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. He also pointed to a “historic liquidation cascade” that saw overleveraged positions wiped out by approximately $19 billion, compounded by reduced liquidity as the US Treasury increases its cash reserves.
Looking ahead to 2026, Dori maintains an optimistic outlook, suggesting that market conditions are likely to improve. Business cycle indicators are hinting at an upswing, bolstered by the services sector and expectations about the Fed potentially halting quantitative tightening. Regulatory efforts appear to be moving forward, even with the current governmental disruptions.
While Dori acknowledges attractive buying opportunities exist within the current Bitcoin market, he believes that the environment remains “uncomfortable” for investors. Nonetheless, this hesitance offers a more hopeful perspective compared to a bear market scenario.
