In a significant development for the cryptocurrency market, a new ETF from REX and Osprey has launched, marking a crucial step towards the introduction of fully spot-backed XRP ETFs. The ETF is noteworthy for employing a blended investment strategy, incorporating not only spot investments but also other ETFs and potentially derivatives as necessary.
However, the absence of one major player, BlackRock, from the XRP ETF arena is raising eyebrows. BlackRock has yet to submit an application for its iShares XRP Trust, even with the impending October deadlines approaching for various spot ETF applications. Recently, the SEC announced a delay in its decision regarding the Franklin Templeton spot XRP ETF, pushing the decision date out by 20 days. This delay has led some analysts to speculate on BlackRock’s hesitance to file—possibly awaiting a more standardized framework from the SEC regarding cryptocurrency ETFs.
Pro-crypto attorney Bill Morgan weighed in on the situation, interpreting the SEC’s short delay as an indication that a final decision on spot XRP ETFs could be imminent. He suggested that BlackRock may not yet be prepared to move forward with its application.
As the landscape shifts, seven different XRP-spot ETFs are approaching their final deadlines, which range from October 18 to October 25. Analysts are increasingly optimistic that the SEC could approve these submissions simultaneously, hinting at a potential launch date as early as October 18. Marty Party, a crypto commentator, confirmed that discussions regarding both SOL and XRP ETFs are ongoing at BlackRock, despite earlier claims that the firm had no intention of filing.
The prospect of a standardized ETF framework from the SEC could facilitate a rapid filing and subsequent launch of BlackRock’s iShares XRP Trust, further bolstering the anticipation for an October listing. Notably, BlackRock had previously engaged with the SEC’s Crypto Task Force back in May 2025 to explore standards for ETF approvals.
Turning to the market, XRP demonstrated a robust performance, rising by nearly 2% to close at $3.0398 after a previous day’s increase. This is significant as the token has maintained its position above the $3 mark for the first time since late August 2025, outpacing broader market trends and suggesting strong trader sentiment. Key technical indicators show support levels around $3, $2.8, and $2.5, while resistance sits at $3.335 and the all-time high of $3.66.
Several factors are poised to influence XRP’s trajectory in the near term. The outcomes of spot ETF approvals or delays are expected to significantly affect market sentiment, with a BlackRock filing potentially serving as a major catalyst. Additionally, institutional adoption by large corporations could further tighten XRP’s supply, and various regulatory advancements—including news related to Ripple’s bank license application and the Market Structure Bill—could also shape market trends.
Looking ahead, two potential scenarios emerge for XRP’s market performance.
In a bearish scenario, if the SEC declines approvals for spot ETFs or if there are legislative roadblocks, such as resistance to the Market Structure Bill, the token could see downward pressure. Further setbacks, like delays in Ripple’s banking applications or continued dominance of SWIFT in global remittances, may significantly impact XRP’s price, potentially pushing it below the crucial $3 support level.
Conversely, a bullish outlook hinges on BlackRock’s filing for an iShares XRP Trust alongside SEC approvals for spot ETFs. If institutional investors begin acquiring XRP as a treasury asset and Ripple secures its bank license, combined with favorable regulatory developments, the token could surge past its previous peak of $3.66.
Overall, XRP’s market future is intricately tied to these forthcoming corporate, macroeconomic, and regulatory trends, with the potential for considerable volatility in the near term.
