Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, has recently articulated a bold perspective on Bitcoin’s future, suggesting that the cryptocurrency’s long-standing four-year cycle may no longer dictate its price movements. In an interview with Fox Business, Wood emphasized how institutional adoption is altering Bitcoin’s volatility and its potential for future declines.
Historically, Bitcoin has experienced significant price crashes—often between 75% and 90%—following its halving events, which occur approximately every four years and reduce the reward for mining new blocks. However, Wood suggests that as major financial institutions increasingly invest in Bitcoin, such sharp declines are becoming less frequent. “The volatility’s going down,” she remarked, indicating that institutional players are likely to safeguard against more drastic downturns. Wood hinted that the recent dip in Bitcoin’s price could represent a substantial low point.
Her views present a significant shift from traditional market expectations. The recent halving, which took place on April 20, 2024, cut the mining reward to 3.125 BTC, a change typically associated with supply constraints and subsequent price rallies. Wood posits that the dynamic landscape of Bitcoin’s trading behavior is evolving; it now resembles more of a “risk-on asset,” aligning closely with equities and real estate instead of serving as a traditional hedge against risks. She also noted that gold has transformed into a “risk-off asset” more often sought for protection against geopolitical uncertainties.
Wood’s outlook falls amid a larger discourse in the crypto community regarding whether Bitcoin’s halving cycles continue to hold their significance. Recently, analysts from Standard Chartered have pointed out that the rise of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional buying has diminished the halving’s historical impact on prices. This led to a downward revision of the bank’s 2025 price target for Bitcoin from $200,000 to $100,000.
The debate has gained considerable traction on social platforms, with figures like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju weighing in. Both have argued that institutional investments have effectively nullified the traditional four-year cycle, with Ju declaring, “The cycle is dead.”
For years, Bitcoin followed a distinct pattern of price movements characterized by accumulation, a rally spurred by halving events, a peak, and subsequent declines. However, after reaching $122,000 in July, analysts have noted that Bitcoin’s current trajectory appears steadier and is less influenced by retail speculation.
In this complex landscape, some analysts believe that although the four-year cycle may be changing, it has not completely vanished. Glassnode asserts that current market behavior continues to parallel earlier cycles related to long-term holder patterns and demand softening as the cycle matures.
Analysts have suggested that while future crashes may be shallower—potentially ranging from 30% to 50%—the upswings could also extend over more extended periods. Macro analyst Lyn Alden has highlighted that Bitcoin’s current market dynamics lack the exuberance typical of significant collapses, suggesting that broader economic factors will increasingly dictate its price movements. She foresees Bitcoin marginally reclaiming the $100,000 mark by 2026, albeit with an uncertain path ahead.
As the cryptocurrency market navigates this new phase, investors are advised to adapt their strategies, acknowledging that models based solely on past halving events may no longer yield precise predictions.
