Citi has revised its price target for Strategy Inc. significantly, lowering it to $136 from the previous $260, while still maintaining a Buy rating along with a High Risk designation. This change comes in light of a downward adjustment to the firm’s 12-month Bitcoin forecast, which has been trimmed by 27% to approximately $81,800.
Analyst Peter Christiansen explained that the updated price target incorporates an anticipated 40% upside due to a projected increase in Bitcoin prices over the next year, alongside a 16% upside contribution anticipated from the expansion of the company’s market-adjusted net asset value (mNAV).
In addition to the price target adjustment, Citi has also substantially decreased its estimates for adjusted Bitcoin Yield. For the fiscal year 2026, the yield is now expected to be only 2.6%, a drop from the earlier estimate of 10.4%. Likewise, the fiscal 2027 estimate has been revised down to 3.9% from 10.5%.
Regarding Strategy’s recent capital plans, Christiansen noted that the changes provide “more time for stabilization.” The company recently raised $1.15 billion through the issuance of new shares, which has increased its USD Reserve from $1.4 billion to $2.55 billion, thereby securing enough funds to cover 17.4 months of preferred dividends. The plan also includes authorization to bolster the USD Reserve by an additional $1.25 billion, as well as authorizing a $1 billion repurchase of both MSTR equity and preferred shares.
Citi’s analysis pointed out that Strategy’s STRK and STRD preferred shares are currently trading at significant discounts of approximately 45% to par. However, the firm anticipates that Strategy will prioritize its STRC shares, which are presently at a more modest 15% discount, especially considering their relative market size of $10.5 billion.
In the context of the broader pressures surrounding Bitcoin, Christiansen emphasized that Strategy should not be dominated by the overall BTC narrative, noting that its trading activity has comprised just 0.79% of the trusted spot volume over the past year. He also projected that its Bitcoin holdings are likely to see only a slight decline, dropping from 4.0% to 3.8% of the total 21 million token supply by the year’s end.
