Polymarket and Kalshi are currently leading the event trading landscape, but a recent analysis from Clear Street suggests that companies like Coinbase and Circle are likely to benefit indirectly through their infrastructure and settlement services. Clear Street forecasts significant long-term growth potential for both Coinbase and Circle, attributing this to the anticipated maturation of prediction market trading.
According to the research, the total addressable market for prediction markets could soar to $14 billion by 2030, bolstered by an impressive $1.2 trillion in annual trading volume. This projection starkly contrasts with an estimated $47 billion in trading volume and around $440 million in revenue expected in 2025.
Clear Street identifies Coinbase and Circle as being “well-positioned” for sustained growth due to their foundational role in the prediction market ecosystem. Although Polymarket and Kalshi capture the majority of current trading activity, Coinbase and Circle are expected to reap indirect benefits by providing essential infrastructure, settlement, and data services. The firm suggests that as prediction platforms mature, they may evolve into robust data and analytics providers, leveraging real-time information flows to extract additional value beyond transaction fees. This positions Coinbase and Circle advantageously, as their established user bases and regulatory compliance frameworks offer a head start in monetizing this potential data-rich landscape.
Despite these optimistic projections, both Coinbase and Circle’s stock performances reflect a muted market response. Coinbase’s stock remained flat in pre-market trading, with retail sentiment trending towards the ‘bearish’ territory. Meanwhile, Circle’s stock experienced a slight dip of 0.8%, with retail sentiment plummeting into ‘extremely bearish’ territory.
Coinbase has strategically enhanced its presence in event trading through partnerships, such as its collaboration with Kalshi, alongside the recent acquisition of Clearing Company. Clear Street highlighted Coinbase as one of its top three fintech picks for 2026, ranking alongside Nasdaq and S&P Global, emphasizing the potential of tokenization and AI innovations in finance.
Circle, as the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, stands to gain from its ability to facilitate high-volume transactions with minimal friction. The retail sentiment surrounding USDC has remained neutral recently, suggesting stable confidence in its market role.
Moreover, Clear Street notes the critical role of stablecoins in fueling activity on event-driven platforms. As institutional adoption of digital assets grows, Circle’s treasury and liquidity infrastructure is poised for scalable expansion, further solidifying its market position in this evolving landscape.
