Coinbase has launched a new feature that enables U.S. users to engage in prediction markets, where they can bet on whether the prices of major cryptocurrencies will increase or decrease. This offer, introduced between January 27 and 28, 2026, allows wagers on various timeframes, from as short as 15 minutes to as long as a year. Users can trade on popular tokens, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, Binance Coin (BNB), Dogecoin (DOGE), and HYPE, with a minimum investment starting at just $1 in either USD or USDC.
The mechanism operates through binary contracts, which present two possible outcomes. For example, a user can ask, “Will BTC be up or down in 15 minutes?” Instead of purchasing the actual cryptocurrency, users are essentially buying a position based on price predictions at a specific time. The platform accommodates various intervals, offering contracts for 15 minutes, hourly, and even extending to yearly agreements for certain assets.
Settlement of these contracts is based on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index (BRTI), which calculates an average from 60 volume-weighted price readings taken during the last minute before settlement. This method mitigates the risk of price manipulation that could occur if a single price point at expiry were used, making it more challenging to exploit the market through timed transactions.
In a strategic move, Coinbase users can trade these prediction contracts alongside traditional spot trading, stocks, and other financial instruments, all within a single interface, utilizing USD or USDC for transactions.
This feature was first previewed during Coinbase’s System Update event on December 17, 2025. CEO Brian Armstrong has emphasized his vision of transforming the platform into an “everything exchange,” which would provide users seamless access to any financial instrument within a unified system. By partnering with Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, instead of developing its own infrastructure, Coinbase aligns itself with established regulatory standards, ensuring that the event contracts available on the platform are compliant. The initial phase of routing all trades through Kalshi aims to reinforce regulatory compliance and operational reliability.
Reports from beta testing indicated active trading, particularly with the 15-minute BTC contracts. For retail investors, this development presents an uncomplicated method to express short-term market predictions without the added complexities associated with leveraging, margin calls, or the intricacies of options trading. The risk is limited to the initial stake, rendering it accessible to a broader audience.
Conversely, more seasoned investors might find that the 15-minute or hourly prediction contracts serve as a simple hedge against short-term price declines, bypassing the necessity of engaging with a derivatives exchange.
From a business perspective, prediction markets represent an additional revenue channel for Coinbase. Each contract generates fees, and if the shorter contracts gain popularity, the volume of daily settlements could translate into significant revenue, even if margins per contract are modest. This also enhances platform retention, as users who utilize prediction markets alongside spot trading, stocks, and other offerings have fewer motivations to switch to competing platforms.
