The cryptocurrency market experienced a slight downturn on Thursday, following a brief rally earlier in the week. Bitcoin saw a decrease of approximately 0.7%, trading at $80,953.28 after reaching a three-month high of $82,800 on Wednesday. Similarly, Ether lost around 1%, now priced at $2,325 after briefly surpassing $2,420 during Wednesday’s surge.
Despite the day’s decline, early indicators suggest a potential bullish reversal in the broader market, which had been consolidating for two months. However, experts emphasize that Bitcoin must surpass the critical threshold of $98,000 to break its cycle of lower highs and lower lows. In the altcoin sector, investor sentiment has been shifting, with tokens such as ALGO and TON seeing gains of 8% to 9% since the start of the day.
In traditional markets, U.S. equity futures remained flat, while the dollar index (DXY) declined by around 0.1%. Investors appear to be cautiously optimistic regarding a possible resolution in the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Turning to the derivatives market, crypto futures activity has been relatively quiet over the past 24 hours, with total futures volume rising modestly by 3% to $216 billion. In contrast, aggregate open interest (OI) fell by 3% to $133 billion, suggesting a trend of deleveraging and reduced risk exposure among traders. Bitcoin’s open interest dropped from 793K BTC to 762K BTC, marking the end of a three-day growth streak. Notably, Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced the most significant decline in open interest, down 6%, while XRP saw a decrease of about 1%. These trends may indicate decreasing speculative interest in these assets.
DOGE’s positioning appears particularly vulnerable, with funding rates remaining negative at an annualized rate of approximately 6%. This trend indicates that those holding short positions are compensating long holders to keep their positions open. Additionally, DOGE’s 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) has turned notably negative, reflecting heightened selling pressure from market participants.
Conversely, Bitcoin’s funding rates have stabilized around a neutral average, suggesting that prior excessive bearish positions have been reduced. Observers view this reset as potentially favorable for Bitcoin’s price movements.
In a different scenario, both Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) recorded increases in open interest of over 1%, even as their spot prices declined. This pattern often signals that new short positions are entering the market, as traders might anticipate further downside.
Interestingly, TON has emerged as a standout, with its open interest increasing more than 10% to a new record high, indicating strong inflows into the token. Its price reached $2.90 earlier, the highest since September, reflecting a remarkable 93% gain over the week.
Among the top-30 tokens, TON, TRX, and ZEC are the only ones registering positive cumulative volume delta readings, implying that buyers are actively engaging in the market through aggressive orders. In contrast, many major assets like BTC, ETH, and XRP continue to show negative CVD readings.
In options trading, a bullish sentiment is evident on Deribit, with call options at strike levels above $80,000 dominating the volume. An analysis from Glassnode suggests that traders with short gamma exposure may be buying Bitcoin to hedge against potential upward movements, which could contribute to further momentum. Additionally, the one-month volatility risk premium has turned positive, signaling renewed demand for short-dated options as traders become increasingly willing to pay for exposure to near-term volatility.
On the indices front, the CoinDesk’s DeFi Select Index (DFX) and MemeCoin Select Index (CDMEME) both outperformed, rising by 2.5%. In contrast, Bitcoin-weighted indices like CoinDesk 5 (CD5) and CoinDesk 20 (CD20) remained flat since midnight UTC, with the broader CoinDesk 100 (CD100) experiencing marginal losses.
CoinMarketCap’s “altcoin season” indicator has reached its highest level since late March, currently sitting at 45 out of 100, a rise from 32 over the past month. However, some tokens faced headwinds, with the popular DeFi token MORPHO declining by 4.6% since midnight and 6.1% in the last 24 hours, trading at $2.13 as investors took profits following an earlier rally.
