A recently circulated chart on social media has ignited significant discussion regarding the current state of the American economy. Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, the S&P 500 index has skyrocketed by over 70%, while job openings have seen a dramatic decrease of approximately 30%. This stark contrast has led to the chart being dubbed the “scariest chart in the world.”
At first glance, the data seems to suggest a clear narrative: artificial intelligence is driving a wedge in the economy, benefiting investors at the expense of workers. However, economist Derek Thompson, who discussed the chart in his recent Substack post, contends that the situation is far more complicated.
The numbers in question are indeed accurate. Job openings reached their peak at 11.5 million in March 2022, coinciding with the Federal Reserve’s commencement of interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation. As of August 2025, that figure had dropped to 7.18 million, reflecting a continuous decline. Over the same period, the S&P 500 jumped from approximately 3,840 to about 6,688, marking a sizeable gain of around 74%. This unprecedented split is not seen in the historical data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which has tracked job openings since 2000.
Thompson attributes the primary cause of this economic disparity not to AI developments but to monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve. The peak in job openings occurred in March 2022, the same month the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since 2018, initiating a series of hikes intended to cool an overheated economy. Higher rates discourage investment and spending, which in turn suppress hiring.
Additionally, policy measures—such as tariffs from the Trump administration and stricter immigration regulations—have further constrained job creation. Studies estimate that these immigration policies could lead to a reduction of up to 15 million workers within the next decade, resulting in a significant decline in annual economic growth.
Thompson sought to explore the notion that AI is wreaking havoc on job markets by examining job openings in sectors most closely linked to AI. Surprisingly, the “Information” sector, which includes those working directly in AI, displayed the smallest decline in job openings. The steepest drops were observed in manufacturing, construction, and energy sectors, all of which are heavily impacted by rising costs due to tariffs and increased borrowing expenses.
Amidst the backdrop of job market stagnation, AI-related stocks saw impressive growth. According to JPMorgan, these stocks contributed to 75% of the returns and 80% of the earnings growth within the S&P 500 since late 2022. This surge accounted for a substantial $5 trillion in wealth gains for U.S. households, primarily driven by major tech firms such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta. Notably, some companies, like Meta, experienced layoffs even as their valuations surged.
Concerns about a market bubble have intensified due to the heightened concentration of gains among a select few companies. This trend has drawn comparisons to the dot-com-era market frenzy. OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, suggested that such bubbles often arise when “smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth.”
While it’s important to recognize the multifaceted nature of these economic dynamics, there are signals suggesting that AI’s impact on employment is beginning to take shape. Research has indicated that younger workers engaged in AI-exposed roles may be experiencing relative declines in job opportunities, with evidence showing that college graduate unemployment reached its highest point in over four years by March 2024.
Nevertheless, projections by the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that many roles directly associated with AI are expected to grow at a rate significantly above the average through 2033, with software development jobs anticipated to rise by nearly 18%.
Thompson concludes that while the chart may suggest a binary division within the economy—between a thriving AI sector and a sluggish traditional economy—it’s crucial to understand the various forces affecting each. He emphasizes that the stark conditions observed are not solely attributable to AI, but rather result from a mix of monetary policy, trade restrictions, and concentrated investments in tech. The sustainability of this growth remains uncertain, leaving analysts and economists to ponder the future of the American economy amidst advancing technological changes.
