Fidelity Digital Assets has released a significant projection indicating that by 2032, up to 8.3 million bitcoins—approximately 42% of the total circulating supply—could become ‘illiquid.’ This trend is primarily attributed to long-term holders and publicly traded companies that are hoarding their assets instead of circulating them in the market.
In a recent report, Fidelity focused on two principal groups contributing to this potential illiquidity: wallets that have retained bitcoin for at least seven years and publicly traded companies owning a minimum of 1,000 BTC. This ‘illiquid’ classification refers to the coins held by these entities, which have seen steadily increasing balances every quarter for the past four years.
Fidelity projects that this combined group will possess over six million bitcoins by the end of 2025, accounting for more than 28% of the eventual 21 million bitcoin supply. Data from Bitbo corroborates these findings, revealing that public companies currently hold upwards of 969,000 BTC, equating to around 4.6% of bitcoin’s total supply. For an overview of these holdings, interested parties can access the bitcoin treasuries tracker.
The report further notes that long-term holders—defined as wallets with coins that have remained untouched for over seven years—have not experienced any net outflows since 2016. Similarly, publicly traded companies have largely maintained their bitcoin, with only one quarter of net selling activity occurring since 2022. At present, there are 105 publicly traded companies that have committed to holding bitcoin, indicating a potential for this institutional segment to grow further.
Fidelity’s projections suggest that if existing accumulation patterns continue, approximately 8.3 million bitcoins may become illiquid by the second quarter of 2032. The tightening of this supply could significantly influence market dynamics, especially as the circulating supply is expected to be around 19.8 million BTC by the close of Q2 2025.
However, amidst the growing illiquid supply, the report also emphasizes risks associated with large holders, commonly referred to as ‘whales.’ Recently, these whales have reportedly engaged in significant sell-offs, with nearly $12.7 billion in bitcoin sold in the last 30 days, marking the most substantial sell-off since mid-2022. This trend raises questions about the stability of bitcoin prices and the broader implications for the market.
