Galaxy Digital has officially revised its end-of-year price target for Bitcoin, decreasing it significantly from $185,000 to $120,000. This adjustment follows Bitcoin’s recent decline below the $100,000 mark for the first time in six months. The updated target comes in the wake of a chaotic market, where over $2 billion in liquidations occurred, impacting investor sentiment and market stability.
In a note to clients, Galaxy stated that Bitcoin is now entering what it terms the “maturity era.” This phase is characterized by diminished volatility, with predictions suggesting that institutional absorption and passive investment flows will shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months. As a result, future price increases may occur at a more gradual pace, prompting Galaxy’s forecast that Bitcoin will only approach its former all-time highs by year-end.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $103,923, reflecting a slight 3% increase from the previous day but still down nearly 18% from its all-time high of $126,080 reached last month, according to CoinGecko data.
Multiple factors have contributed to the prevailing headwinds facing Bitcoin, as identified by Galaxy. One significant event was the record liquidation cascade totaling $19 billion that transpired on October 10. This sell-off was exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, notably President Trump’s threats of substantial tariffs against China, which have also dampened market liquidity and investor confidence.
In addition to these challenges, emerging assets—such as gold and AI-related stocks—are beginning to compete with Bitcoin for investors’ attention. The rising prominence of stablecoins within the crypto sector has also shifted focus away from Bitcoin, diluting its previously dominant position as a go-to investment.
On the regulatory front, expectations had centered around Bitcoin being a centerpiece of national discourse following President Trump’s return to office. However, despite an executive order aimed at establishing a strategic reserve for Bitcoin, actual government purchases have yet to materialize, with officials remaining notably reticent about the initiative.
Galaxy has also observed a shift in retail interest toward cryptocurrency, expressing concern that retail investors appear increasingly indifferent since 2021. Although some resurgence in interest was seen during last year’s meme coin frenzy, this excitement hasn’t led to sustained confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.
As Bitcoin’s market cooling continues, the dynamics for treasury companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets are also evolving. Traditionally, these firms would see their stock price correlate with Bitcoin’s performance, but Galaxy posits that the current environment will necessitate these companies to innovate and seek alternative revenue streams as Bitcoin’s upward momentum slows.
Predictions from platforms like Myriad suggest a 64% likelihood that Bitcoin will reach $115,000 before dropping to $85,000. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy and author of the report, reaffirmed his long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin, cautioning that while the digital asset might take longer than expected to recover, its future potential remains intact.
