In an optimistic assessment of legislative progress, Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, has assigned a 70% chance for the CLARITY Act to pass. He believes its enactment could catalyze Bitcoin to reach new all-time highs. Addressing the current congressional timeline, Thorn noted that lawmakers have roughly nine weeks left to address this bill before the August recess, with an estimated six to seven weeks needed to bring it to President Trump’s desk.
The bill advanced through the Senate Banking Committee last week on a bipartisan basis, encouraged by Senators Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks, who crossed party lines to support it. This development comes after a previous delay of four months initially scheduled for a vote in January, primarily due to negotiations over stablecoin yield provisions.
Thorn expressed concern that if the bill fails, it may be attributed to stringent ethics provisions. These provisions would prevent elected officials from trading in or issuing digital assets, a point of contention as Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has vocally advocated for such rules following President Trump’s contentious launch of a meme coin.
While the White House has indicated a willingness to accept broad ethics provisions universally applicable to all officials, questions remain about the constitutionality of imposing limitations on Article Two officers within the executive branch. Thorn remarked, “This feels like the final boss of issues,” suggesting that overcoming these hurdles could facilitate bipartisan support for the bill’s passage in the Senate.
In contrast, banking institutions have been lobbying against provisions regarding stablecoin yields, raising concerns that the bill could prompt a significant shift of deposits as customers opt for higher yields offered by stablecoins. Thorn dismissed these banking arguments as “cynical” and “nonsensical,” noting that Americans already invest in money market funds for yield. He also referenced research indicating that net new cash from abroad could more than compensate for any domestic deposit migration.
Thorn has adjusted his prediction for the probability of the bill’s passage upwards to between 70-75%, a viewpoint that diverges from Polymarket traders, who currently estimate a 61% likelihood. He highlighted his contrarian stance throughout the legislative process, shifting to a more bullish outlook at a time when caution prevails among traders.
“If CLARITY passes, the path to new all-time highs is on the table for this year,” Thorn stated, cautioning, however, that while Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,000, it’s unlikely to soar to $115,000 overnight. Instead, he asserts that the bill would set a positive trajectory for the cryptocurrency market.
As the deadline approaches, the dynamics surrounding the CLARITY Act continue to evolve, with significant implications not only for Bitcoin but for the broader landscape of digital assets and financial regulations.
