Recent analysis from TD Securities highlights that gold has been lagging behind the performance of other commodities, particularly oil and base metals, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. The experts, Ryan McKay and Bart Melek, emphasize that without a substantial deal between the two nations, gold’s performance will continue to suffer.
The tightening of energy markets is a significant factor, contributing to the macroeconomic challenges facing precious metals like gold. Despite a temporary rally in precious metals last week, fueled by hopes of an impending Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) or agreement between the US and Iran, the underlying pressures remain unchanged.
Currently, gold is underperforming relative to a broader range of commodities. In particular, oil and base metals are benefiting from heightened supply risks, which are keeping their prices supported. The analysts expect that energy markets will remain tight, maintaining upward pressure on prices, even in the event of a potential agreement between the US and Iran.
As a result, the macroeconomic headwinds that have been affecting the precious metals sector are anticipated to persist. For Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), positioning in gold is expected to remain relatively steady unless market conditions trigger significant price movements—specifically, a rise toward $4,750 per ounce or a decline toward $4,480 per ounce.
The persistence of these macro risks suggests that the outlook for gold and other precious metals will continue to be influenced by developments in global energy markets and geopolitical events. Stakeholders in the commodities market will be closely monitoring these dynamics.
