Recent findings from Grayscale Research suggest that the Bitcoin price has reached its bottom within the $65,000-$70,000 range, setting the stage for a potential early bull market. According to Zach Pandl, head of Grayscale Research and former Goldman Sachs macro strategist, on-chain data indicates that recent buyers have been able to return to breakeven following a rally of over 20% from February’s lows, which were around $63,000.
Notably, Bitcoin recently peaked at $78,417, buoyed by broader market conditions, including a significant geopolitical development where President Donald Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire. This news coincided with oil prices dipping back below $90 per barrel, further stabilizing market conditions.
Pandl highlighted that the realized price for Bitcoin over the past one to three months is currently hovering around $74,000, suggesting that short-term holders are no longer experiencing losses. He believes this shift illustrates a declining sell pressure and a change in investor sentiment, reinforcing the notion that a market bottom has been established.
While Bitcoin has yet to reach its previous peak of October 2025, the current momentum aligns with trends typically observed at the beginning of prior bull markets. Pandl noted that if Bitcoin continues to rise, more recent buyers will transition into profit and could signify the initial phase of a new bull market.
Julio Moreno, the head of research at CryptoQuant, echoed this optimistic outlook, stating that the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has recently entered neutral territory for the first time during this bear market. However, he offered a word of caution, noting a similar occurrence in March 2022, where the Bitcoin price briefly stabilized before resuming its downward trend.
In addition, 10x Research pointed out that despite some lingering bearish sentiment due to negative funding rates and subdued trading volumes, April’s spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are indicative of a bullish shift. They noted that accumulation is occurring earlier in this cycle compared to previous recoveries, hinting at a strengthened market interest beyond just institutional players like MicroStrategy.
As Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory, the recent surge is also occurring amid increased liquidity from the US Federal Reserve. BTC has successfully broken above key resistance levels identified by analyst Benjamin Cowen, which have historically signified important market shifts.
In today’s trading session, Bitcoin has seen almost a 3% increase, currently trading at approximately $77,990. The trading range over the last 24 hours was between $74,852 and $78,417, reflecting a pronounced interest among traders, as evidenced by a 14% increase in trading volume.
Network data indicates substantial buying activity in the derivatives market, contributing to Bitcoin’s recent recovery. Total Bitcoin futures open interest surged nearly 6% to approximately $59.53 billion in a single day. Trading volumes from key platforms like CME and Binance also experienced noteworthy increases, indicating robust bullish sentiment among derivatives traders.
As market dynamics shift and analysts remain cautiously optimistic, all eyes are on Bitcoin’s next movements, with a potential climb towards the 100-day simple moving average projected at $87,735.
