Hedera’s (HBAR) price experienced a significant drop, trading below $0.103 on Tuesday following a nearly 4% decline the previous day. This downturn is largely supported by weakening on-chain metrics and derivatives data, contributing to a generally bearish sentiment among investors.
Data from Santiment reveals that the Social Dominance metric for HBAR, which tracks the volume of discussions related to HBAR in the cryptocurrency media, has been progressively decreasing since the end of December. As of Tuesday, this metric was reported at 0.018%, indicating a diminishing interest in HBAR and a loss of bullish sentiment among its supporters.
On the derivatives front, Hedera’s open interest (OI) in futures has dropped to $92.15 million on Tuesday, a steady decline that began in early January and is approaching the $88.89 million level recorded on February 6. This noticeable reduction in open interest implies that investor participation is waning, reinforcing the bearish outlook for HBAR.
Technical analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency’s price was rejected at the critical 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $0.103 on February 14, resulting in an 8.5% drop to its current trading level of $0.094. This EMA level aligns closely with the upper trendline of a falling wedge pattern drawn from various highs and lows since late June, marking it as a key resistance area.
If HBAR continues its downward trajectory, analysts predict that it may decline further to the weekly support level at $0.090. Should the price close below this threshold, it could spell more significant losses, potentially heading towards the next daily support level at $0.072, a point that aligns with the lows seen on October 10.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart currently stands at 44, below the neutral mark of 50, and is trending downward. This suggests that bearish momentum is gaining strength. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) lines are converging, indicating uncertainty among traders. A bearish crossover in the MACD would bolster the case for further declines.
Conversely, if HBAR manages a rally, it may test the resistance at the 50-day EMA level of $0.103 once again. However, given the prevailing bearish indicators, the outlook remains uncertain as investors weigh potential outcomes.
