Hedera’s Hashgraph (HBAR) has recently emerged as a leader among Real World Asset (RWA) focused projects, demonstrated by its leading developer activity. As the year 2026 commenced, HBAR’s price began a notable surge, escalating by 21% to reach $0.133. However, the token has since retracted to hover around its established support levels, now consolidating at approximately $0.12.
Market analysts have observed a double bottom pattern forming around the $0.10 mark, enticing interest from traders. These indications could signal bullish behavior for utility altcoins such as Hedera (HBAR), Stellar (XLM), and Ripple (XRP). Despite this optimism, experienced traders anticipate that HBAR’s price may retest a substantial demand zone at $0.05 within the first quarter of 2026. A prominent trader known as Cosmic has expressed a conservative outlook: “My Q1 target for entry is $0.05,” suggesting a period of sideways movement before a potential breakout as the market progresses toward Q4.
Looking forward, Cosmic predicts a significant surge for utility coins involved in the vast RWA market and those compatible with SWIFT’s new ISO 20022 global financial messaging standard. Notably, all three tokens—HBAR, XRP, and XLM—align well with this standard. Among them, Ripple stands out due to its extensive utilization in cross-border financial transactions, boasting a substantial daily trading volume and a significant market capitalization of approximately $129 billion. In contrast, HBAR’s market cap currently sits at $5.9 billion, while Stellar follows closely with a $7.5 billion market cap.
Despite the differing market caps, HBAR is technically considered the quickest option, excelling in developer activity as reported by Santiment. With the capacity to process 10,000 transactions per second, the HBAR network has the potential to capture a more significant share of SWIFT’s annualized trading volume, estimated at $155 trillion.
Both HBAR and XRP are undergoing evaluations on SWIFT’s traditional payment networks, as the banking organization pursues immediate settlement solutions. While some analysts foresee a pullback prior to any breakout, the technical landscape provides conflicting signals. HBAR’s recent price action indicates a double bottom at $0.10, which could lead to a positive rally towards the more resistant $0.14 level—an area not seen for over a month.
Investor sentiment regarding HBAR remains mixed, particularly among larger holders, who are seemingly adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ approach amid ongoing geopolitical turbulence affecting both crypto and stock markets. The ability for HBAR to exceed the Smoothed Moving Average (SMA) trend line appears critical for reaching its price targets. Nevertheless, the current activity suggests that many large investors are focusing on profit-taking, as evidenced by negative figures in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) on the four-hour charts.
In summary, while the short-term outlook for HBAR appears cautious to bearish, characterized by resistance challenges and likely sideways price movement, the long-term perspective remains optimistic. Analysts believe that enduring through the present market pain could yield significant rewards down the line, setting the stage for promising outcomes in 2027 provided broader market conditions stabilize. Risks to monitor include the possibility of support holding stronger than expected, which could stifle a deeper dip to $0.05, or a broader market downturn that may delay the anticipated breakout in the latter part of the year.
