For five years, Michael Saylor maintained a strict policy concerning Bitcoin (BTC)—a steadfast “never sell” rule that formed the bedrock of his investment strategy, brand identity, and the rationale behind shareholders’ interest in the company’s stock, MSTR. However, during a Q1 earnings call on May 5, Saylor indicated a potential shift in stance, suggesting the company might sell some Bitcoin to facilitate dividend payments.
In a follow-up clarification, Saylor noted that for every Bitcoin sold, Strategy would repurchase 10 to 20 Bitcoin, reaffirming that the company would remain a net buyer despite the sale of a small portion of its holdings. While initial reactions to his comments were negative, with MSTR’s stock declining by 4.33% and Bitcoin dipping below $81,000, Saylor’s subsequent messaging aimed to alleviate concerns about his earlier statements.
Appearing on various podcasts over the following days, Saylor sought to redefine his position by emphasizing that he would prefer to avoid being a net seller of Bitcoin. The spin was intended to reassure investors and counter the narrative that the company might need to issue more MSTR stock to cover dividend obligations. He remarked that his original message about selling Bitcoin was not as catchy as the refined version, dismissing the viral nature of the initial shock.
The company’s recent financial instruments, particularly its newly launched preferred stock, STRC, have become crucial in the Bitcoin purchasing strategy. STRC was introduced in July 2025 and has since functioned as what Saylor refers to as a “Bitcoin accretion engine.” In April alone, Strategy raised an impressive $3.2 billion through STRC, which allows for monthly dividend obligations ranging between $80 and $90 million. This financial structure supports the claim that for every Bitcoin sold, the company could buy multiples more, provided Bitcoin observes a specific growth rate.
During the Q1 earnings call, Saylor elaborated that Bitcoin need only maintain a modest annual growth rate of 2.3% to ensure that existing reserves could cover dividend payments indefinitely without requiring new capital. Since Bitcoin has historically averaged returns of 30% to 40% annually, the 2.3% target presents a low hurdle. The firm’s strategy hinges on maintaining this balance, particularly in light of its transitioning focus from MSTR to STRC for Bitcoin funding, a shift that has significantly increased STRC’s share in the company’s equity issuance.
However, underlying these optimistic projections are three key risks that could compel the company to shift from being a net buyer to a net seller of Bitcoin. Strategy has established a new guideline indicating that when its market cap-to-Bitcoin ratio (mNAV) is above 1.22x, it will issue MSTR stock to acquire more Bitcoin. Conversely, if this ratio falls below that threshold, selling Bitcoin becomes necessary. Currently, Strategy’s mNAV hovers just above that trigger point, making it critical for STRC investors to maintain their interest in shares priced around $100.
Concerns grow about sustaining STRC demand, which has seen its dividend rate rise from 9% at launch to 11.5% today, prompting speculation about whether this trend might push the mNAV below 1.0 in the latter half of 2026. In this scenario, the capital engine would stall, potentially necessitating Bitcoin sales.
Importantly, the Bitcoin markets also play a pivotal role. While the 2.3% breakeven rate appears favorable, investor confidence has been shaken by past price volatility, such as the drastic 77% decline observed in 2022. Continuous poor performance from Bitcoin would rapidly deplete the company’s reserves.
Critics like Peter Schiff have voiced skepticism regarding Saylor’s credibility and commitment. Schiff argues that when faced with difficult choices, Saylor would likely prioritize Bitcoin reserves over STCR investors. This discrepancy raises questions about the sustainability of the 20x claim if forced to confront reality.
Market sentiment reflects these uncertainties, with trading platforms indicating an 87% likelihood of Strategy selling Bitcoin by year’s end, highlighting lost confidence in Saylor’s narrative. Even though the company can currently be classified as a net buyer, this status is contingent upon meeting certain conditions: strong demand for STRC, Bitcoin achieving its modest growth expectations, and maintaining an mNAV above the critical 1.22x ratio.
As the company approaches its next quarterly reporting period, investors will closely monitor developments, including recent communications from Saylor signaling potential operational moves in the Bitcoin market. The upcoming disclosures will serve as a litmus test for the validity of the 20x claim and may clarify the divide between Saylor’s strategic objectives and actual market practices.
