Almost all recent buyers of Bitcoin (BTC) are currently facing losses, as detailed in the latest on-chain report from analytics firm Glassnode, titled “Finding a Floor.” The analysis reveals that over 95% of Bitcoin owned by these buyers is now “underwater,” meaning they purchased the cryptocurrency at higher prices than its current trading value.
This scenario indicates a level of widespread distress among investors, a phenomenon linked to market capitulation. Glassnode utilizes a metric called the Percent of Short-Term Holder Supply in Profit, which assesses the profitability distribution among newer investors — those who have held Bitcoin for less than five months. Recently, this metric exhibited a troubling low of just 0.6%, which somewhat improved to 3.3%, but still remains dramatically below its four-year average of 55%. In a healthy market, roughly half of recent buyers would be seeing gains; however, the current landscape shows that almost none are in profit.
Such low readings suggest that the market has entered what Glassnode terms a “capitulation band.” With nearly all recent buyers recording losses, the market’s structural integrity appears weakened. These holders, having little financial cushion, are more likely to sell in response to negative news, which raises the likelihood of spasmodic selling pressure during downturns.
According to the report, recent buyers are down approximately 17% to 19% on average and have increasingly been realizing their losses.
Despite this dire outlook, Glassnode refrained from declaring an absolute market bottom. The prevailing conditions of almost universal loss, combined with the lack of a strong recovery in the metric, suggest that Bitcoin’s current lateral trading action could be classified as an “exhaustion pause” rather than a solid floor. This indicates that while selling pressure may have temporarily subsided, there is no fresh demand emerging to establish a lasting low.
As of the latest data, Bitcoin was trading around $63,281, reflecting a modest increase of 2.6% from previous figures. However, it remains over 50% lower than its peak value of nearly $126,000 recorded in October. The ongoing situation presents a challenging outlook for both recent and potential investors in the cryptocurrency market.
