The real estate market has recently seen a noticeable improvement in supply compared to previous years, although the majority of this supply is concentrated in high-end and luxury projects. In contrast, the mid-range and affordable segments continue to face significant shortages.
According to the third-quarter 2025 report by the Vietnam Association of Real Estate Brokers (VARS), supply has diversified geographically, expanding from urban centers to satellite areas and secondary cities with abundant land resources and reasonable investment costs. The northern region leads in new supply, accounting for 49% despite a 4 percentage point drop since the previous quarter. The southern region contributes 27%, while the central region has seen a surprising increase to 23%, with many projects expedited to meet the recovering demand.
In terms of supply structure by developer, the market is still dominated by a few large corporations despite indications of increasing competition. In the third quarter alone, these major players provided over 54% of new supply, although this is an 18 percentage point decrease from the previous quarter. Leading firms include Vingroup (9.7%), Sun Group (10.7%), and Masterise (11.3%). Together, large enterprises such as Vingroup, MIK, Masterise, and others represent about 64% of the total market supply over the first nine months of 2025, with Vingroup being the most significant contributor to supply.
While overall supply has increased, the mid-range and affordable segments remain largely absent from the market. Affordable apartments only constituted 6% of the market over the first nine months of 2025, primarily due to contributions from social housing projects. In major cities like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, around 80% of new apartments available are priced above 80 million VND per square meter.
The concentration of supply in a few large urban developments and the dominance of major corporations have not only led to inflated prices but also caused a significant lack of housing options for actual residents. This situation poses a substantial challenge in balancing supply and demand, thereby limiting access to housing.
In discussions with VietnamFinance, the Vice President of VARS, Nguyen Chi Thanh, highlighted that changes in laws and regulations over the past 3-5 years have made it challenging for small and medium-sized enterprises to implement projects. Only companies with substantial land banks and financial capacities capable of developing hundreds of hectares can maintain adequate supply and influence the market.
CEO of EZ Property, Pham Duc Toan, pointed out that the market is witnessing strong differentiation. Larger developers, benefiting from financial strength, are able to implement comprehensive large-scale projects, thus leading the market direction. However, these companies typically prioritize mid-range to high-end developments while refraining from affordable housing, which contributes to a general trend of rising prices. Moreover, small businesses find it increasingly difficult to compete as legal restrictions and capital requirements become more stringent.
Toan also underscored the significant advantages of large real estate firms, particularly their integrated financial ecosystems, such as MIK partnered with VPBank, and Masterise supported by Techcombank. This backing from financial institutions grants them strong financial resources and eases the legal processes—privileges often inaccessible to smaller developers.
While the concentration of real estate supply in the hands of a few large developers provides both benefits and drawbacks, experts suggest that such a concentration can stifle price competition. Instead of competing through price reductions or product diversification, major investors tend to set high initial prices to maximize profit.
According to Thanh, while large-scale projects can lead to better infrastructure and a higher quality urban environment, they also mean that pricing power lies predominantly with sellers. If supply were more diversified among multiple developers, competition would encourage lower prices. However, with only a few firms controlling the market, they can establish prices based on their profit expectations.
Thanh emphasized that small and medium enterprises, which previously contributed significantly to the mid-range segment and addressed real housing demands, are facing formidable barriers. Numerous projects that require land use changes or are located in areas with underdeveloped infrastructure are often stuck in lengthy regulatory processes. The inconsistency of land clearance regulations further complicates matters, forcing companies to negotiate with landowners independently, which increases overall costs and sometimes leads to speculative purchasing.
To address declining supply in the mid-range market, Thanh called for appropriate support mechanisms for small and medium enterprises, thus fostering diverse supply and enhancing market competitiveness, ultimately providing more options for buyers.
Toan concurred that having large conglomerates lead the market presents clear advantages, as they are capable of executing well-planned large projects with synchronized infrastructure and steady progress. However, he expressed concern over the potential for price manipulation when a few firms have such strong market control. Many high-end properties are primarily purchased by investors rather than actual residents—about 70-80% of transactions involve buyers who already own multiple properties seeking appreciation rather than primary residences.
Furthermore, he noted that most major companies are tightly integrated with banks to offer financial leverage to customers, which, while providing initial interest rate benefits, can evolve into a financial trap once these incentives expire. Borrowers may face substantial repayments, especially as more banks begin lending under less rigorous standards, potentially resulting in increased non-performing loans in the market.
Toan suggested that small enterprises may need to restrict themselves to developing smaller projects, primarily in rural areas where operational costs are lower. In larger cities, however, the cost of real estate has become unaffordable for these smaller players, emphasizing a market trend where larger companies surpass the capacities of smaller companies.
In summary, the dynamics between large and small real estate developers remain a critical focal point of the current market landscape, highlighting a potentially troubling trend of consolidation and its implications for affordability and accessibility in housing.
