NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has exhibited notable trading patterns within a 10-year Channel Up, characterized by distinct cyclical movements. Both the bullish and bearish legs of this channel display a strong symmetry, providing insights into the company’s market trajectory.
Historically, following the cycle peaks observed in 2018 and 2022, analysts anticipate that 2026 will mark the next cycle peak, potentially ushering in a significant bearish phase for the stock. This projection arises from a prolonged sideways market movement observed since the October 2025 high, signaling the end of a bullish cycle that spanned from 2023 to 2025.
Technical indicators, such as the 1-month Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggest that the market has reached a critical juncture. The RSI pattern indicates that after making a secondary touch on the lower highs zone, there was minimal room for subsequent price increases. Current conditions mirror those of the September 2018 high, where the 1-month RSI has once again touched the overbought threshold of 70.00, akin to the situations noted in October 2018 and January 2022. In those instances, NVIDIA experienced significant price declines, bottoming out around a 42.00 RSI, which subsequently established a long-term buying opportunity.
Using insights from past bearish legs, the analysis indicates that price bottoms coincided closely with 1-month RSI bottoms. These events either occurred near or marginally below the 200-week moving average (MA200) and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, the MA200 is positioned above the 0.382 Fib level, suggesting that it is likely to be tested before the market finds a bottom. Projections indicate a target price around $110, which would represent a considerable drop, though it is notably less severe than declines witnessed in previous cycles.
Should the 1-month RSI hit the 42.00 support level before reaching the $110 mark, analysts contend that NVIDIA may present a long-term buying opportunity, emphasizing that this would hold true regardless of the actual price at that moment. In conclusion, while market conditions appear precarious, opportunities for long-term investment may emerge as the stock navigates its cyclical patterns.
