As the post-Thanksgiving shopping frenzy approaches its climax, consumers across the United States are expected to immerse themselves in what analysts predict will be a record-breaking Cyber Monday. With online shopping having become integral to many people’s routines, this year’s holiday rush is forecasted to see significant spending, even amid broader economic challenges.
Adobe Analytics has projected that U.S. shoppers will spend approximately $14.2 billion online this Cyber Monday, marking an impressive 6.3% increase from the previous year. Prior to this, consumers shelled out $11.8 billion on Black Friday and another $6.4 billion on Thanksgiving Day, exceeding Adobe’s initial expectations for both days. This surge in consumer spending during the five key shopping days of Cyber Week provides insight into the willingness of shoppers to spend as the holidays draw near.
“Cyber Week is off to a strong start,” noted Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights. He emphasized that discount levels are expected to remain high through Cyber Monday, reinforcing its status as the biggest online shopping day of the year.
Deals on popular items such as electronics and apparel are anticipated to reach significant discounts, with estimates indicating 30% off on electronics and 26% off on clothing. However, while consumers are eager to make purchases during this high-stakes shopping period, they may also encounter rising retail prices that could propel sales figures to new heights.
Economic uncertainty looms large, influenced by various factors including tariffs imposed by the U.S. government on foreign imports. Additionally, workers in both public and private sectors are grappling with concerns around job security amid corporate layoffs and the repercussions of an extended government shutdown. The National Retail Federation estimates that U.S. shoppers will spend over $1 trillion during the November-December holiday season for the first time, but the growth rate is expected to slow down to an increase of 3.7% to 4.2%—a dip from the 4.3% growth seen in the previous year.
In tandem with rising consumer spending, credit card debt and delinquencies on short-term loans have also soared. As a result, more shoppers are turning to “buy now, pay later” (BNPL) schemes, which allow them to postpone payments on items such as holiday decorations and gifts. Adobe predicts that these BNPL plans will facilitate $20.2 billion in online spending this holiday season, representing an 11% increase compared to last year. It also foresees that BNPL loans will surpass $1 billion on Cyber Monday, predominantly benefiting from purchases made on mobile devices.
Mobile shopping has taken precedence this season, with Adobe expecting that smartphones, wearables, and other handheld devices will account for 56.1% of online spending, totaling approximately $142.7 billion. This marks a significant shift from five years ago, when desktop computers dominated online purchases.
The growing reliance on artificial intelligence in shopping also highlights evolving consumer behavior. Salesforce estimates that AI assistants and digital agents contributed to $14.2 billion of the total $79 billion spent online globally on Black Friday. Popular products expected to fly off the shelves this Cyber Monday include gaming consoles such as the Nintendo Switch 2 and trendy toys like Labubu Dolls. Furthermore, the newest iterations of consumer electronics, including the iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10, and Samsung Galaxy S25, are anticipated to have high demand.
Cyber Monday, now in its 20th year since being coined by the National Retail Federation in 2005, continues to grow in influence. It has transitioned from a single shopping day into a broader week of sales that fuels consumer excitement and spending. As deals and discounts beckon shoppers, retailers remain hopeful for a surge in spending that could provide a bright spot in an otherwise uncertain economic landscape.
