As the S&P 500 approaches the third week of November, it finds itself just over 2% shy of its record high close from October 28, a notable recovery from a rocky start to the month. This week is poised to be significant for investors, with key economic indicators and pivotal earnings reports on the agenda.
First on the docket, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced the release of the September employment report on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. This report was originally set to drop on October 3 but was delayed by the government shutdown. The BLS will also unveil September real earnings on Friday at the same time. Real earnings, which account for inflation by factoring in the consumer price index against average hourly earnings, could not be computed for September due to the delayed wage data. The CPI for September was released on October 24, making it the only economic report available during the shutdown, as it is essential for calculating Social Security cost-of-living adjustments.
A second focal point for the week will be the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, during which policymakers opted for a quarter-point cut in interest rates. Market speculation is rampant regarding whether the Fed will pursue another rate decrease during its meeting scheduled for December 9-10. While some market participants viewed another rate cut as almost certain, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks suggest caution. Recent hesitance from Fed officials, particularly in light of the delayed data from the government shutdown, has led to shifts in market expectations. Currently, the CME FedWatch tool indicates only a 46% probability of a December cut.
Lastly, this week holds significance for earnings announcements, particularly among retailers and major tech firms. In the wake of robust earnings reports from the majority of S&P 500 companies—where 82% have reported positive earnings per share surprises and 76% have seen positive revenue surprises—investors are keenly awaiting substantial reports over the coming days. Home Depot will lead the charge on Tuesday, providing insights into how interest rates are affecting home construction and renovation activities, particularly in relation to mortgage rates for 2026. Updates on tariffs will also be of great interest.
On Wednesday, TJX Companies, known for its off-price retail brands such as T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, will release its quarterly earnings. With consumer spending under scrutiny, TJX’s approach to meeting demand for value-driven goods could be pivotal during the holiday shopping season. Also reporting on Wednesday post-market close will be Nvidia, a crucial player in the tech sector, with CEO Jensen Huang expected to discuss forward guidance and production of their next-generation artificial intelligence chip amidst a backdrop of substantial sales forecasts.
Additionally, Palo Alto Networks is scheduled to announce earnings on the same day, and focus will be on its cybersecurity strategy and any implications stemming from the government shutdown.
Looking ahead to the week, several important data points will be released, including the Empire State index on Monday, followed by industrial production numbers on Tuesday before the bell. On Thursday, the employment report and various indicators, like existing home sales and consumer sentiment, will provide further insights into economic health.
In summary, the upcoming week presents a confluence of economic data releases and high-impact earnings reports, which could significantly shape market sentiment and investor strategies as the S&P 500 approaches its pre-October high.
