In a challenging financial environment, Strategy faces significant pressure as its annual dividend obligations have surged dramatically. Starting from approximately $300 million in early 2026, these obligations have ballooned to an eye-watering $1.2 billion, marking a near fourfold increase in a span of less than six months. This squeeze is compounded by the company’s need to raise a reserve of around $2.8 billion, equivalent to 24 months of coverage, to stabilize the value of its investment in STRC.
Recent analyses from CryptoQuant reveal a stark picture of Strategy’s financial standing. The company currently holds a staggering $10.6 billion in unrealized losses, with all Bitcoin bought in the years 2024 through 2026 operating at a loss. If Strategy were to sell its Bitcoin holdings at current market prices, it would incur substantial losses that could severely undermine shareholder value.
Despite these challenges, the likelihood of a forced sale is currently low. Strategy is not mandated to offload its Bitcoin assets to maintain STRC and is instead leveraging alternative strategies, such as increasing dividends or issuing new shares, to ensure financial stability and signal to the market that it can continue meeting its obligations.
CryptoQuant has suggested that a more prudent approach for Strategy would be to halt any new Bitcoin purchases and focus on rebuilding its reserves first. Following this, the company should adopt a more systematic strategy for timing future purchases, rather than buying opportunistically as capital becomes available.
The dividend payments present another layer of complexity. Strategy’s dividends are cumulative, meaning that if the company misses a payment, it will still need to be paid in the future. As such, CryptoQuant posits that it is unlikely Strategy would suspend its dividends, especially considering the potential loss of credibility with preferred shareholders that such a move could entail.
This assessment offers a more critical perspective than the one provided earlier this week by Benchmark-StoneX, emphasizing the precarious balancing act Strategy must perform to navigate its current financial landscape.
