A recent analysis by CoinGecko has highlighted a distinct pattern in Bitcoin’s performance during US holidays, showcasing its potential for generating stronger returns compared to regular trading days. The study, which evaluates Bitcoin’s forward returns from May 1, 2013, to May 8, 2026, revealed that purchasing Bitcoin on US holidays has historically yielded much more lucrative short-term gains.
The findings indicate that Bitcoin’s average next-day return on US holidays stood at 0.77%, significantly higher than the 0.19% average recorded on non-holidays. Out of the 14 years analyzed, Bitcoin outperformed on holidays in 11 instances. Among regular weekdays, Mondays and Wednesdays emerged as the most profitable, with an average next-day return of 0.38%. Notably, Thursdays were the only weekdays to post a negative return, averaging -0.09%.
The analysis pinpointed New Year’s Day as the standout holiday for Bitcoin purchases, yielding an average next-day return of 2.01% based on 13 observations, with a remarkable win rate of 84.6%. This indicates that Bitcoin saw an increase the following day in 11 out of 13 years on January 1. Columbus Day also exhibited an impressive win rate of 84.6% alongside an average return of 1.70%. Christmas followed with a 1.46% average next-day gain and a win rate of 53.8%.
CoinGecko suggested that the positive trend on New Year’s Day might align with the broader January momentum effect that often influences traditional financial markets, as investors typically allocate new capital at the start of the year. The study noted that Bitcoin’s price ranged from $313 in 2015 to $93,507 in 2025, yet the consistent pattern of next-day gains persisted across this diverse pricing landscape.
However, not all holidays showed favorable returns. Martin Luther King Jr. Day was identified as the weakest performer, with an average next-day negative return of 0.84%. This downturn was chiefly impacted by Bitcoin’s significant decline of 18.65% following January 15, 2018, during an early bear market phase. Independence Day also presented a negative average return of 0.26%. Although Veterans Day reported an average gain of 1.75%, CoinGecko cautioned that this was skewed by a few unusually large rallies, and the holiday’s win rate remained below 50%.
In terms of performance consistency, the analysis indicated negligible differences between weekdays and weekends. Both periods exhibited next-day returns of 0.21% and 0.22%, respectively, a variation deemed statistically insignificant due to Bitcoin’s round-the-clock trading nature. Over a more extended holding period of one year, the timing of purchase appeared to exert minimal influence on long-term returns, with average annual gains across all weekdays clustering within a narrow 2.4 percentage point range. While holiday purchases indicated slightly stronger one-year returns, these outcomes likely reflected broader market cycles rather than a specific holiday-driven trend.
In light of current market dynamics, Bitcoin has recently seen price action returning above $80,000 after a brief dip below that threshold earlier this week. Market analysts have attributed the recent price decline to multiple factors impacting the market simultaneously. On-chain metrics revealed a sharp decrease in Bitcoin exchange outflows before the selloff, resulting in an abundance of available sell-side supply. Additionally, derivatives traders have been actively building short positions amidst high levels of leveraged long exposure. The onset of falling prices triggered a wave of long liquidations, which further accelerated the downward trajectory. Rising inflation concerns, fueled by fresh US Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data, alongside significant selling by large “whale” investors, have compounded the market’s pressures.
