TD Cowen analysts have revised their price target for Strategy, lowering it from $500 to $440 amidst the company’s bold bitcoin buying strategies. The analysts remarked that while the company’s aggressive investments might be viewed as audacious, the change in their equity mix has resulted in a reduced yield from its bitcoin holdings.
In a recent report, Lance Vitanza, managing director and senior analyst at TD Cowen, highlighted that Strategy has not only weathered a challenging period characterized by price compression but has actively engaged with the market conditions. Over the past week, the company successfully raised $1.25 billion through the issuance of common stock and variable-rate Stretch preferred stock. Remarkably, almost the entirety of this capital—amounting to all but $0.5 million—was allocated to the acquisition of 13,627 bitcoin.
Vitanza emphasized that Strategy continues to be an attractive option for investors seeking exposure to bitcoin. He expressed optimism, projecting that the company is now poised to acquire a total of 155,000 bitcoin, a substantial increase from the previously anticipated figure of 90,000. Maintaining a “buy” rating on Strategy, Vitanza suggested that long-term investors—those with horizons of four years or more—who are strong proponents of bitcoin should concentrate on the common shares. He argued that, should bitcoin outperform other asset classes, the performance of Strategy’s common stock would significantly exceed that of bitcoin itself.
For risk-averse investors interested in bitcoin exposure, Vitanza recommended focusing on the senior preferred STRF shares, which are underpinned by a solid coverage factor of 6.4 times the company’s bitcoin holdings. He indicated that bitcoin would need to plummet to $14,000 for these shares to potentially face impairment.
Furthermore, TD Cowen set a base case assumption estimating the price of bitcoin could hit $177,000 by December 26, with an optimistic scenario reaching $225,000, while a pessimistic outlook sees the price falling to $60,000.
In related developments, Bitcoin Treasuries conducted a 2025 Audience Survey revealing that a staggering 90% of participants foresee an increase in Strategy’s bitcoin holdings. Nearly half of the respondents anticipate the company holding 1 million bitcoin by 2026, up significantly from its current total of 687,410. Additionally, 12% of those surveyed expect the company to achieve 1.5 million BTC, while 6% predict holdings could soar between 2 to 3 million BTC.
Investors are likewise optimistic about the broader market, with expectations for bitcoin digital asset treasuries to double by the end of 2026. Approximately 32.4% of respondents predict total corporate holdings could reach about 1.7 million bitcoin, nearly double the current levels.
