In a significant shift in fiscal dynamics, the U.S. government is reportedly spending more on interest payments than on national defense. In the fiscal year 2025, interest expenses are projected to reach approximately $970 billion—nearly triple the amount from just five years prior. This situation raises alarms among investors, leading many to speculate that the government may resort to extensive money printing as a means of addressing its fiscal constraints.
This phenomenon, dubbed “the big print,” was popularized by investment manager Lawrence Lepard in his book of the same name. Lepard’s theory suggests that the government will have no choice but to print money to alleviate its financial predicament, potentially leading to a debasement of the dollar. Although some interpretations of the theory have become more extreme, even a conservative view of current fiscal data indicates that inflation is likely to increase, prompting investors to seek ways to hedge against this possibility.
At the core of the “big print” thesis lies straightforward mathematics. With the national debt of the U.S. exceeding $39 trillion and the Congressional Budget Office predicting annual budget deficits of over $2 trillion for the next decade, a significant portion of government revenue will increasingly be directed toward servicing this debt. This reality poses a challenge for political leaders, who often find it unpopular to cut government spending programs.
Policymakers may have a few options to navigate this landscape. While accelerating economic growth could be one approach, pushing for a sovereign default is deemed politically unfeasible. The most historically common solution for heavily indebted governments has been to accept higher-than-normal inflation, which erodes the real value of debt over time.
Investors may not need to subscribe to the more extreme factions of the big print theory, such as predictions of imminent hyperinflation, to act accordingly. Even a more moderate annual inflation rate of 4% to 5% would significantly diminish the dollar’s purchasing power over just a decade.
In light of these fiscal trends, allocating a portion of investment portfolios to asset classes such as Bitcoin, Zcash, and Tether Gold has emerged as a viable strategy for guarding against inflation. Bitcoin stands out as the most established cryptocurrency, renowned for its capped supply of 21 million coins and its decentralized nature. With over 95% of its total supply already mined and the halving event slated for April 2028 that will reduce new issuance, Bitcoin could serve effectively as a store of value in an increasingly inflationary environment.
Zcash presents another option, closely mirroring Bitcoin’s scarcity while also offering unique privacy features for transactions. This differentiation could attract investors looking for both value preservation and financial confidentiality.
On a different note, Tether Gold offers a physical asset approach to inflation hedging. Each Tether Gold token represents one troy ounce of gold securely stored in Swiss vaults, making it a more stable option in comparison to its volatile crypto counterparts.
However, a critical consideration remains: disregarding equities and growth-oriented investments entirely in favor of these store-of-value assets may leave a portfolio vulnerable if inflation levels remain moderate. Therefore, these assets should be viewed as part of a comprehensive, diversified portfolio strategy rather than a complete replacement of traditional investments.
Preparing for the potential influx of inflation could prove beneficial; should “the big print” manifest, investors who take proactive measures may find themselves in a stronger position. If inflation remains subdued, a carefully measured allocation to these assets is unlikely to incur substantial costs.
