Binance Research has highlighted the potential for a recovery in Bitcoin and stock markets in light of upcoming U.S. midterm elections, drawing on historical trends from previous election cycles. The firm pointed out that the 12 months following midterm elections have historically yielded an average gain of 19% for the S&P 500 and a notable 54% increase for Bitcoin, based on data from the past three midterm elections.
In its analysis, Binance stated, “Once election outcomes are determined and uncertainty is resolved, markets have historically staged powerful rallies.” However, the firm also emphasized that midterm years tend to be accompanied by significant declines in asset prices. For instance, Bitcoin has experienced substantial losses during prior midterm years, including a staggering 56% drop in 2014, a 73% decline in 2018, and a 64% retracement in 2022. Despite these setbacks, Binance highlighted that these bearish periods are often followed by recoveries, characterizing the year after midterms as the “strongest window in the cycle.”
This report comes approximately eight months before the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, which are expected to shape the composition of the 120th Congress.
In the short term, however, Binance warned that the markets may be more profoundly impacted by geopolitical events, particularly the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, rather than the upcoming elections. Recently, crude oil prices surged to $95 per barrel amid heightened tensions, marking the 13th day of the conflict. Reports emerged of Iranian boats attacking two fuel tankers, and an Iranian military spokesperson suggested the world should brace for oil prices potentially reaching $200 per barrel.
In the crypto realm, exchanges are observing a fluctuating Bitcoin that remains range-bound. Gracy Chen, CEO of crypto exchange Bitget, shared her insights, stating, “In this environment, crypto’s higher-beta profile means its upside potential could still exceed traditional equities should liquidity conditions stabilize once political uncertainty clears.”
Analysts from Bitunix also noted that Bitcoin has been hovering below the $70,000 threshold, indicating that market movements are largely influenced by liquidity sweeps in both directions. They suggested that Bitcoin may continue to trade within a narrow range until broader macroeconomic conditions offer clearer direction for the market.
