XRP has experienced a notable decline of over 9% following the recent Swell event organized by Ripple, extending a losing trend that has persisted throughout November. After witnessing a brief rally that brought XRP to approximately $2.40 on November 5, the cryptocurrency has slipped to around $2.19, despite several announcements made during the high-profile conference.
The Swell event, held in New York on November 4-5, featured significant revelations, including a $500 million funding round led by Citadel Securities and Fortress Investment Group, as well as the introduction of integrations for Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin and hints about a forthcoming decentralized lending protocol on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). However, these announcements did not suffice to sustain bullish momentum, illustrating the recurrent pattern of “buy the rumor, sell the news” that often follows Ripple’s annual showcases.
Historically, XRP has shown a tendency to perform poorly in the weeks following the Swell event. In four out of the last five years since 2020, the cryptocurrency has faced negative returns in the timeframe between the event and the end of the year, suggesting that investor hype diminishes swiftly after the announcements conclude.
Contributing to the downward pressure on XRP, Bitcoin’s recent dip below $100,000 amidst weakness in equity markets and tightening liquidity in the U.S. has dampened sentiment across the altcoin sector, including XRP. Technical analysis indicates a troubling scenario for XRP, marked by a confirmed bear flag pattern and an impending death cross—occurring when the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) falls below the 200-period EMA.
The bear flag pattern emerged after a steep decline from around $3.60 in early September, followed by a consolidation phase that briefly lifted XRP’s price toward $2.60. However, a rejection from the flag’s upper boundary and the breach below its lower limit suggest that sellers are regaining control. As a result, XRP is now anticipated to target the $1.65–$1.70 range, aligning with the calculated downside from the bear flag measurements and previous support levels observed in April.
This lower price target also corresponds with XRP’s aggregated realized price, a metric provided by Glassnode that reflects the average on-chain cost basis across all wallet cohorts. A potential retest at this level could present a significant value zone where long-term holders might choose to accumulate, thereby serving as a psychological and technical support floor that may limit further declines.
