Russian crude oil shipments have experienced a significant decline, marking the sharpest drop seen since January 2024. Vessel-tracking data from Bloomberg reveals that the four-week average of crude oil exported from Russia’s ports decreased to 3.58 million barrels per day for the period ending November 2, a reduction of 190,000 barrels per day compared to the week before.
This downturn is indicative of the impact of US sanctions, which have begun to reshape the dynamics of Russian oil exports. The data shows an 8% increase in the volume of Russian crude oil stranded at sea, with no immediate buyers, since early September. In addition, a stark 27% decline in export value was recorded for the week ending November 2 compared to the previous week.
Market responses have mirrored these developments, with Brent crude oil prices dropping by 1.2% and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) seeing a decline of more than 1.3%.
The sanctions imposed by the US Treasury Department over the past year target Russia’s four largest crude producers and apply strict penalties to companies that engage in business with these entities. These measures include substantial fines and exclusion from the US financial system, contributing to the ongoing challenges faced by Russia’s oil sector.
China, India, and Turkey collectively account for 95% of seaborne shipments of Russian crude, but recent reports indicate that refiners in these nations have started to scale back their purchases. In India, three major refiners that had previously been importing nearly one million barrels per day have paused their Russian crude acquisitions. Meanwhile, in China, cancellations from two significant state-owned refiners could impact up to 45% of the country’s Russian crude imports.
The geopolitical landscape also plays a role in these shifts, particularly for India, which is navigating heightened tensions with the US following the imposition of an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods. This has raised India’s total tariff rate to 50%, a situation exacerbated by its continued purchases and resale of Russian oil.
As these countries reassess their Russian crude imports in light of both international sanctions and domestic market conditions, the outlook for Russian oil exports appears increasingly uncertain.
