Bitcoin is showing potential signs of recovery, driven by strong buyer support as evidenced by its Cost Basis Distribution (CBD), which has exhibited a notable divergence compared to Ether’s weaker market flows. Data from analytics firm Glassnode points to a robust accumulation of Bitcoin in recent trading activity, with transactions clustering tightly around recent price levels. This density of spot activity indicates a significant level of buyer conviction, indicating that Bitcoin’s current support may prove to be more resilient than momentum driven by futures.
Exchange flows are further emphasizing this trend. Notably, Coinbase has experienced a consistent spike in netflows from August 25 to August 31, occurring right after its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) marked its lowest level since early 2023. Typically, sharp reversals from such multi-year lows can signal a liquidity regime shift, which could mean either restructuring settlements or gearing up for increased activity on the exchange. On the other hand, Binance reported its highest netflow since July 2024 during the same timeframe, which aligns with previous phases of reserve reaccumulation ahead of new local highs. The simultaneous patterns observed on Coinbase and Binance signal a significant redistribution of reserves that could set the stage for upward movement in Bitcoin’s price.
Recently, long-term holders have shown increasing spending or potential profit-taking, with the 14-day SMA trending upward. However, this activity remains within routine cycle norms and is far below the peaks witnessed in October-November 2024, indicating more calculated distribution instead of aggressive selling.
After a recent dip to approximately $107,300—a level that correlates closely with Bitcoin’s short-term realized price—BTC managed a resurgence, breaking above $109,900 during the New York trading session. This sharp rebound follows a two-week corrective phase; lower time frames, including 15-minute and one-hour charts, are now reflecting a bullish reversal in structure. Moreover, the four-hour chart’s relative strength index (RSI) has reclaimed levels above 50, signaling improved bullish sentiment among traders.
For this recovery to sustain momentum, Bitcoin needs to overcome immediate resistance points between $112,500 and $113,650. A decisive close above the latter level would confirm a bullish break in trend on the daily chart and could effectively invalidate the descending trendline that has shaped price action over the past couple of weeks. Such a breakout may pave the way toward liquidity targets set at $116,300, $117,500, and possibly even $119,500.
However, market participants are advised to remain cautious, especially given the historically bearish seasonality observed in September. If Bitcoin fails to achieve a breakout or exhibits sustained weakness below the critical $113,650 mark, it could become susceptible to downside risks, with targets potentially dropping toward the range of $105,000 to $100,000.
