The IRS has reported that the average tax refund for the ongoing 2026 filing season has seen a significant increase of 10.9% compared to the same timeframe last year. As of February 6, the average refund amount has reached $2,290, up from $2,065 during the same period in 2025. This rise is expected to continue as the filing season progresses, particularly as millions of Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) refunds are yet to be processed.
Analysts have indicated that tax cuts enacted under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed by former President Donald Trump, are anticipated to contribute to higher refund amounts for many taxpayers this year. The Republican-led House Ways and Means Committee estimates that these changes could result in refunds increasing by as much as $1,000 per filer.
Currently, the data shows an increase of $225 in the average refund compared to last year, although this figure may expand as more tax returns are processed. Experts from the Bipartisan Policy Center warn that early tax season data can sometimes be misleading, referencing past seasons where average refunds initially appeared lower before climbing as more returns were filed.
The 2026 tax filing season officially commenced on January 26, and as of early February, the IRS has received about 22.3 million tax returns, marking a 5% decrease from the previous year. This figure reflects only 14% of the total 164 million returns anticipated for this season. Last year, approximately 63% of taxpayers received an average refund of $3,167, with most electronic filers expected to see their refunds within 21 days.
As of February 6, over 7.4 million refunds have been issued, which is an 8.1% decline compared to the same point last year. Taxpayers should keep in mind that the federal tax filing deadline is set for April 15.
Historically, average tax refunds tend to begin lower and then increase as the filing season advances. A significant factor contributing to this pattern is that refunds pertaining to returns claiming the EITC and ACTC cannot be issued until February 15. Additionally, returns that are more complex, often seen with higher-income taxpayers, may require more time for preparation and filing.
Data from the Bipartisan Policy Center indicates that the average tax refund typically rises sharply in mid-February before experiencing a slight dip as Tax Day approaches. It’s important to note that the IRS reports the average refund amount based on its weekly statistics, which can be swayed by particularly large refunds.
President Trump has characterized the current filing period as one that may yield the largest tax refunds in history, following numerous amendments to the tax code under the recent legislation. However, refund amounts are likely to vary significantly among households.
In consideration of the changes in tax provisions, including a higher standard deduction, enhanced Child Tax Credit, and a new senior deduction, many taxpayers are expected to see reductions in their tax bills amounting to hundreds of dollars. Conversely, some other adjustments are projected to yield significant savings, potentially into the thousands, particularly for specific individuals receiving tips or overtime pay.
Principal Asset Management, a global investment firm, suggests that the average tax refund may increase by nearly $700, potentially reaching $3,800 per filer in 2026. Middle and higher-income households are projected to benefit the most, seeing average increases of about $1,000. On the other hand, lower-income households, which typically face little to no federal income tax obligations, may only see modest increases of under $100 in their refund amounts.
