In January, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant decline, reaching a record low against gold (XAU), sparking discussions among analysts about potential investment opportunities. Data from Bitwise Europe indicated that Bitcoin’s valuation relative to gold fell to unprecedented lows when adjusted for the global money supply. This change has raised flags for traders as it signals potential market bottoms, reminiscent of past trends.
Historically, such lows, particularly hitting the -2 level on relevant charts, have marked pivotal moments in the Bitcoin market. The last time a similar alignment occurred was in 2015, which preceded an astronomical increase in Bitcoin’s price—an astonishing 11,800% surge that saw its value rise from approximately $165 to $20,000 within a mere two years.
Industry experts, including Michaël van de Poppe, expressed optimism about the current market, suggesting that the present moment could offer a more advantageous buying opportunity compared to 2017. This sentiment was echoed by other analysts like André Dragosch, head of research for Bitwise Europe, and Pav Hundal, a lead analyst at Swyftx, who believe capital may soon rotate from gold into Bitcoin, potentially starting in February or March.
However, the outlook is not universally optimistic. Analyst Benjamin Cowen cautioned that Bitcoin’s downtrend might persist longer than many anticipate, theorizing that Bitcoin may continue to struggle against the stock market. He expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a rapid shift from precious metals to Bitcoin in the near term.
Additionally, a report from Citi indicated that silver might see continued gains, influenced by demand from China and a weaker U.S. dollar, while RBC Capital Markets forecasted a rise in gold prices to $7,000 by the end of 2026. Cowen reiterated that, although precious metals appear strong, a swift move into Bitcoin might not be forthcoming.
Amidst this market turbulence, data reveals that long-term Bitcoin holders have been quietly absorbing the sell-off in January. Metrics indicate a recovering supply among holders who retain Bitcoin for longer than 155 days, with the Long-Term Holders (LTH) Spent Binary— a measure of holder selling activity—continuously declining during this period. Historical patterns suggest that such trends in LTH supply and declining selling activity often precede the formation of robust market bottoms for Bitcoin.
The recent behavior of long-term holders mirrors previous cycles where recovery in their supply led to significant price rebounds, like the sharp rally of about 60% from April 2025 lows. These emerging trends hint that patient investors are leveraging the recent price declines to build a more substantial foundation for future gains in Bitcoin’s value.
