Bitcoin prices fell to a six-week low, dipping below $73,000 on Thursday morning, as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) struggled significantly, with a staggering $733.43 million in outflows reported on Wednesday alone. This marked the largest daily exit since January 29, according to data from SoSoValue. Cumulatively, these funds have seen $1.07 billion in outflows recently, on pace to exceed last week’s total of $1.26 billion.
Among these funds, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust experienced $527.8 million in outflows, marking its second-largest exit since its inception. This downturn follows a noteworthy dark pool transaction involving the sale of 29 million IBIT shares, valued at approximately $1.29 billion. IBIT itself faced its second-worst outflow day, with $528 million exiting amid a ‘step back’ phase likely triggered by the previous large block trade.
Market analysts noted that the decline below $74,000 is critical for Bitcoin’s trajectory. Sean Bill, Chief Investment Officer of Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, remarked that $74,000 serves as a pivotal level, having previously acted as major resistance before becoming support. He emphasized that if Bitcoin consolidates below this level, bears could anticipate a decline toward February’s lows, which hover just above $60,000. However, he also pointed out that strong backing exists at that threshold, especially with the 200-week moving average sitting around $61,500.
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey, acknowledged that while ETF outflows are concerning, they do not necessarily indicate an outright bearish outlook. He attributed the outflows to institutional adjustments following rising U.S. Treasury yields and cautioned that continued outflows amidst high yields may exert additional downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. He identified the $75,000 area as critical, suggesting that failure to regain stability above $75,000 could result in further declines, with recent options indicating a put wall at $60,000.
The performance and strategies of Bitcoin ETFs have been vital for price support, especially in the wake of recent geopolitical tensions. Strategy’s STRC, a perpetual preferred equity instrument launched in mid-2025, has allowed major Bitcoin holders to continue their acquisition strategies despite the price downturn. However, recent analysis revealed that Strategy’s effective cash runway has diminished significantly, dropping from a previous estimate of 16 months to just over six months, raising concerns about its dividend obligations.
Founder Michael Saylor hinted at the necessity for Strategy to begin selling some Bitcoin soon, prompting concerns about its wider implications for market confidence. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10xResearch, highlighted the potential ramifications of Strategy’s shift from accumulation to disinvestment, emphasizing that this change might not only affect the company’s balance sheet but also dilute confidence in the overall Bitcoin narrative, which has drawn institutional interest over the past several years.
Some analysts maintain a more optimistic outlook, positing that any sales by Strategy might dampen sentiment but not necessarily lead to significant price drops. They argue that the symbolic nature of Saylor’s shift—from a long-standing market advocate to a seller—will generate headlines and possibly influence other digital asset treasuries. As such, the perceived path towards a recovery and a return to the $100,000 mark may be more complicated than previously anticipated.
