As Bitcoin prices surge to three-month highs, profit-taking among investors appears to be on the rise, signaling a significant movement in the cryptocurrency landscape. Julio Moreno, the head of research at the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, highlighted that holders realized approximately 14,600 BTC in profits on a single day, amounting to around $1.1 billion. This spike in profit-taking follows a notable rally in April and marks the highest daily profit-taking since mid-December when Bitcoin was valued above $90,000.
Analysis shows that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR), which measures profit-taking behavior among wallets holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days, has risen above the critical level of 1. This threshold indicates a clear phase of profit realization. Moreno noted, “Bitcoin holders are realizing more than 20,000 BTC in net profits on a 30-day rolling basis, the first positive reading since December 22, 2022.” This trend comes after a challenging period for Bitcoin holders, who faced substantial net losses, with figures plummeting as low as 398,000 BTC in February and March.
Historically, spikes in realized profit during bear markets tend to suggest a potential local price top or a period of sideways trading. Despite the recent profit-taking, Moreno cautioned that demand has not kept pace with the rising prices, indicating that Bitcoin is still within the bear market territory.
In conjunction with this profit-taking trend, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to attract significant capital. Recent data from Farside shows four consecutive days of positive inflows, with overall ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion for the week. However, a substantial outflow of $268.5 million occurred on Friday, raising questions about the sustainability of this inflow trend.
Market analysts remain divided on the future trajectory of Bitcoin prices. Some express optimism, while others caution against potential downturns. Michael Terpin, an early Bitcoin investor, suggests that BTC might find a bottom at $57,000 by October 2026 based on historical price cycles that typically see Bitcoin reach its lows about a year after peaking.
While there is a possibility that Bitcoin could reclaim the $100,000 level in the coming years, Terpin considers such an outcome to be unlikely, reflecting the broader uncertainty that continues to shroud the cryptocurrency market.
