As the Thanksgiving holiday approached, many crypto traders felt a glimmer of hope as Bitcoin’s price began to recover from significant declines. However, that optimism was short-lived, as the cryptocurrency faced another sharp drop on Monday. Prediction marketplaces, particularly Kalshi, reflected this bearish sentiment, with the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching the coveted $100,000 threshold by the end of the year plummeting from 60% to approximately 24%.
Kalshi, along with other prediction markets such as Polymarket and Robinhood, has become a key resource for gauging future probabilities across various sectors, including cryptocurrency. The shifting odds clearly showcase a more pessimistic outlook for Bitcoin, with 63% of Kalshi bettors anticipating that the cryptocurrency will fall below the $80,000 mark before the year concludes. Even extending out to 2027, a staggering 82% of bettors believe Bitcoin will not surpass $200,000.
Kalshi, which gained prominence during the previous U.S. presidential election for its predictive success, is touted as one of the dominant players in the prediction market landscape, alongside rival Polymarket. The increasing interest has driven valuations up significantly, with Polymarket now seeking a valuation of up to $15 billion and Kalshi targeting around $11 billion.
As of Monday afternoon, Bitcoin’s price sank about 8% to approximately $84,000, marking a decline of approximately 33% since hitting a peak of around $126,000 just two months prior. The downturn was mirrored by other major cryptocurrencies; Ethereum experienced a 10% drop to about $2,752, while Solana fell nearly 9% to around $125.
Contributing to the turbulence in the crypto market, traders in the U.S. were greeted with concerning news from Japan, where the two-year bond yield soared to a 17-year high. This development is part of a broader series of macroeconomic signals that have pushed investors toward a more cautious stance. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, indicated that the potential for a Japanese rate hike is gaining traction, and with the country’s hefty government debt, even small adjustments can have ripple effects throughout global markets.
