An early backer of Hedera’s native token, HBAR, asserts that the cryptocurrency, currently valued around $0.09, has the potential to reach $1, despite its recent lackluster performance linked to aggressive token unlocks. In a detailed analysis, the commentator integrates on-chain metrics, tokenomics, and regulatory landscape developments to support their optimistic outlook on HBAR.
Having held HBAR for over five years, the analyst recalls buying it at just $0.03 and points to the token’s 2021 surge to approximately $0.50 as evidence of its growth potential when demand is not countered by excessive supply. This historical price movement enriched many early investors, a fact that seems to bolster the analyst’s confidence in HBAR’s future.
Central to HBAR’s current challenges is its token release schedule. With a total supply of 50 billion tokens and about 43 billion already in circulation, the release of billions of coins tied to various agreements—including governance, operations, and ecosystem development—has led to what the analyst describes as “dilution” for retail investors, despite an uptick in on-chain activity and community engagement. To mitigate these effects, the analyst suggests that a quicker distribution of tokens could ultimately benefit the market.
On a more favorable note, the discussion highlights regulatory advancements and institutional interest as significant factors driving HBAR’s potential growth. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has clearly classified HBAR as “not a security,” positioning it favorably among the “clean sixteen” cryptocurrencies and reducing its regulatory risks.
Additionally, the anticipated launch of a Canary Capital spot HBAR ETF in October 2025 could draw substantial investments, and the analyst emphasizes the importance of non-derivative ETFs that directly acquire HBAR, as these would enhance the token’s market value. The Hedera hashgraph technology, touted as highly secure and suitable for financial institutions, is also poised to play a critical role in developments related to artificial intelligence, real-world asset tokenization, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
The analyst believes that achieving a target price of $1 would require a 10x increase, a feat deemed “extremely common in crypto.” A comparison with XRP’s current market cap suggests that HBAR could trade around $1.90 if it reaches a similar valuation—representing a substantial surge from its current price. They identify a “perfect storm” of circumstances—including the completion of token unlocks, increased ETF adoption, and rising interest in new asset classes—as critical catalysts for HBAR’s price trajectory.
Short-term, a return to $0.40, a level seen earlier in 2025, is suggested as a realistic intermediate goal. While current market pressures may mask Hedera’s fundamental advantages, the analyst posits that a stabilization of supply coupled with growing institutional demand and new use cases could reveal deeper upside potential than its current market position indicates.
The analyst has indicated a plan to take profits upon reaching $1, though they hint that their full exit strategy will depend on evolving market conditions. As interest in broader crypto narratives like AI and CBDCs grows, they remain cautiously optimistic about HBAR’s future within the competitive digital asset landscape.
