On May 29, Hedera saw a notable rise in trading activity, with the price climbing to $0.09237 after bouncing sharply off a low of $0.082. This surge was marked by one of the largest single-session trading volumes in recent months, signaling a potential bullish sentiment among traders. The 2-hour price chart indicated a breakout from a tight Bollinger Band squeeze, further reinforcing the shift in market dynamics as futures positioning turned positive.
The daily chart has demonstrated a descending channel since January, with the price oscillating between key Fibonacci levels. Specifically, the price has been trading between the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $0.0861 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $0.0905. There are two Fair Value Gap (FVG) zones overhead, situated between $0.1150 and $0.1250, which have remained untested since a downturn in February. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, currently at 0.08, is positive and trending upward, suggesting that buyers are actively entering the market at current price levels.
Analyzing the shorter-term 2-hour chart reveals a clearer picture of recent price actions. From May 23 to May 28, prices were confined within narrowing Bollinger Bands, with the lower band at $0.08072 and the upper band at $0.09480. The recent candle broke through the upper band, an indication of a classic Bollinger Band squeeze breakout. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also registered a bullish crossover, reinforcing the positive momentum as the MACD line surpassed the signal line, both positioned above zero and widening.
A critical resistance level exists at the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($0.09485), which aligns perfectly with the upper Bollinger Band, creating a dual resistance point. A 2-hour close above this level could signal a potential climb towards the 0.705 Fibonacci level at $0.09805, followed by the 0.786 level at $0.10104. Conversely, should the price retreat, the midline of the Bollinger Band at $0.08776 would serve as the initial support, with further support provided by the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $0.0905 and the 0.382 level at $0.0861.
The trading activity in the futures market has seen considerable changes, with futures volume surging by 242.91% to $460.38 million, and open interest climbing by 13.39% to $130.51 million. This dramatic increase indicates that short-term speculation is driving the majority of the activity. Recent liquidation data reveals that shorts suffered $560.71K in liquidations over a 24-hour period compared to $441.59K for longs, indicating a greater struggle for bearish traders. The retail long/short ratio stands at 1.0657, indicating a nearly even distribution, while professional traders on Binance exhibit a more bullish stance, with long positions almost double the size of shorts.
Despite a slight outflow in spot netflows sitting at a negative $299.25K, this has not deterred the ongoing price recovery. This suggests that the recovery in Hedera’s price is primarily being driven by futures positioning rather than spot accumulation.
Looking ahead, a crucial target for May 30 will be the ability of Hedera to close above the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.09485 on the 2-hour chart, which would establish a path toward the 0.705 Fibonacci level at $0.09805, and ultimately the 0.786 level at $0.10104. On the flip side, a close below the Bollinger Band midline at $0.08776 would bring the 0.382 Fibonacci level at $0.0861 back into play, with the channel’s lower trendline near $0.082 representing a worst-case scenario for price support.
