A recent analysis from the crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant reveals a concerning trend among Bitcoin’s largest holders, indicating a potential bearish momentum in the market. The report highlights that “whales,” or entities holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, have been shedding their Bitcoin reserves or adding to their holdings at a notably slower rate over the past year. This behavior echoes patterns observed during the 2022 bear market, where Bitcoin’s price plummeted from over $47,000 to as low as $15,000.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price is approximately 42% lower than its all-time high of $126,080, which was reached just last October. Analysts note that the ongoing decline in whale balances mirrors the negative growth trajectory seen in 2022 when the year-over-year change in whale balances first stalled and then turned negative. The fluctuations in price during that period are stark, with Bitcoin falling nearly 67% from its high of $47,450 in March to its November low of $15,742.
The CryptoQuant report elucidates that both the whale and “dolphin” cohorts—those holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC—are currently experiencing stagnation in their Bitcoin accumulation. This dual stall among the two significant groups of Bitcoin holders is concerning as it typically signals impending price weakness, given that they are primary sources of structural demand support in the Bitcoin markets.
In an interesting counterpoint, the report indicates that the balance of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has escalated to an all-time high of 15.8 million BTC. However, analysts suggest that this increase may portend further negatives for the market, as it indicates a lack of new entries into the market. CryptoQuant explains, “Long-term holder supply increases when Bitcoin does not change hands at scale,” and describes the current short-term demand as “insufficient” to offset the selling pressure from long-term holders.
As Bitcoin’s price fluctuated around $73,536 recently—down 1.7% in the last 24 hours and nearing a 5% decline over the week—trader sentiment is increasingly pessimistic regarding its short-term outlook. Predictions are becoming more bearish, with growing indications on Myriad, a prediction market platform affiliated with Dastan, that Bitcoin may trade below $70,000 before the end of May.
