During a recent media tour at the Stargate AI data center in Abilene, Texas, Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI Inc., discussed the company’s plans to file for an initial public offering (IPO). This filing is expected to be made confidentially as early as Friday, a move that has reshaped trader expectations on prediction markets concerning which private AI company would make its public debut first. Currently, traders on Kalshi are favoring OpenAI, giving it an 83% probability of going public ahead of its main competitor, Anthropic.
Industry experts highlight the significance of being the first to enter public markets during this heightened competitive landscape. Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, emphasized that the first IPO sets a company’s valuation and provides critical leverage in engaging with investors. Prior to the Wall Street Journal’s initial IPO timeline report—which CNBC later confirmed—OpenAI had only about a 32% chance of leading the race to the public markets, while Anthropic’s prospects significantly diminished from 69% to just 20% following news of OpenAI’s imminent plans.
Despite OpenAI’s early success following the launch of its ChatGPT model in November 2022, investor confidence has waned due to various concerns. These include increasing operational expenditures, reports of unmet revenue and growth targets, and notable leadership changes. There have reportedly been internal disagreements regarding timelines for the IPO, with Altman advocating for a quicker public offering in contrast to CFO Sarah Friar’s more measured approach.
Conversely, Anthropic has seen considerable growth via its enterprise segment and is currently negotiating a new funding round that could elevate its valuation to $900 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s most recent valuation. Investor enthusiasm has been particularly drawn to Anthropic’s Claude models, which have seen continuous iterations that have significantly impacted market trends, particularly noted at the beginning of the year.
Interest surged around the new Claude Mythos model announced in late March, which positioned Anthropic in a stronger light compared to OpenAI. Around this same time, reports emerged suggesting Anthropic was eyeing an IPO as soon as October.
However, OpenAI has recently achieved a favorable court ruling against Elon Musk, a development seen by analysts as pivotal in turning the company’s fortunes around. Ives remarked that the combination of this legal victory and the forthcoming IPO filing marks an important momentum shift, potentially alleviating some of the negative perceptions surrounding OpenAI.
As anticipation builds for the potential IPOs, the competitive dynamics in the AI sector continue to shift, positioning both OpenAI and Anthropic at the forefront of investor attention.
