More than $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire on October 31, 2025, at 8:00 UTC on Deribit, marking one of the largest monthly crypto derivatives events of the year. This significant expiry surpasses last week’s $6 billion event, primarily due to the monthly rollover of October contracts. Traders and investors are urged to closely monitor max pain levels and positioning, both of which could significantly influence short-term price movements.
As of the current market analysis, Bitcoin is trading at $109,287. The upcoming expiry will see 124,171 contracts worth approximately $13.59 billion close, with the max pain price positioned at $114,000 — a critical threshold where most option holders will incur losses. Historically, it has been noted that Bitcoin’s price tends to gravitate toward the max pain zone as the expiry date approaches, driven by market makers who are hedging their positions. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.70, reflecting a slight bullish sentiment among traders, while the overall open interest in Bitcoin options on Deribit is 124,171 contracts. Here, the call open interest of 73,001 contracts exceeds the put open interest of 51,171, reinforcing this mild bullish outlook.
Analysts from Greeks.live characterize the current market structure as “fragile and bidless,” highlighting recent liquidations that have impacted market stability. Key levels for traders to monitor include $112,000 and the CME gap ranging from $110,000 to $111,000. Resistance levels have been identified between $116,000 and $118,000. Should support falter, traders are closely eyeing $106,000, which would signal a potential 3% correction from current levels. Open interest in Bitcoin has significantly declined over the past month, dropping from above 100,000 contracts to approximately 70,000, indicating reduced participation among traders — a trend that suggests either profit-taking or a lack of conviction at existing price points. This decline in open interest amidst stable pricing suggests a consolidation phase, leaving market direction uncertain unless new catalysts arise.
In parallel, Ethereum is trading at $3,854, with 646,902 contracts totaling $2.49 billion about to expire. The max pain level for Ethereum sits slightly above current prices at $4,100. Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum’s put-to-call ratio also stands at 0.70, indicating a mild bullish sentiment, though the data reflects a more defensive positioning among traders. The call open interest for Ethereum is at 381,462 contracts, which surpasses the put open interest of 265,440, suggesting that traders are hedging against downside risks while maintaining optimistic views amid late-stage contract expirations.
Market analysts have noted that positioning for Ethereum reads cautiously bullish, particularly as easing US-China trade tensions may present stronger upside risks, leading traders to adopt less hedged positions. However, the size of this impending expiry emphasizes its potential impact on spot prices for both cryptocurrencies, given that together, Bitcoin and Ethereum options represent over $16 billion in notional value. While Deribit indicates a cautious optimism related to improving macroeconomic conditions, analysts from Greeks.live caution about ongoing downside risks and the potential for exhausted buyers in the market.
As these significant positions unwind, traders should prepare for a potential increase in volatility, particularly as max pain levels — at $114,000 for Bitcoin and $4,100 for Ethereum — loom on the horizon, potentially shaping the immediate future of price movements in these leading cryptocurrencies.
