A perpetual contract on Hyperliquid suggests an anticipated first-day gain of approximately 35% for SpaceX’s stock, which is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq exchange today under the ticker symbol “SPCX.” This landmark event marks SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) and signifies the largest IPO in Wall Street’s history, with a significant valuation of $1.77 trillion and $75 billion raised from the share sale.
Current trading for the Hyperliquid perpetual contract ranges between $176 and $183 per share, representing a premium of 30% to 35% above the IPO price of $135 per share. Analysts indicate that these contracts offer valuable insights into the expected performance of SpaceX’s stock once it becomes available for trading.
It is essential to note that holders of Hyperliquid contracts do not receive SpaceX shares, allocation rights, or any stake in the company. Instead, these contracts function as cash-settled derivatives, enabling predictions based on the initial fixed price set for the IPO. This mechanism allows investors to gauge potential market movements when SpaceX officially lists on the Nasdaq.
Hyperliquid operates as a Layer-1 blockchain platform, specializing in spot and perpetual futures trading. In recent times, blockchain-based prediction markets have evolved into popular venues for investors placing wagers on the outcome of the SpaceX IPO ahead of its launch. On the prediction market platform Polymarket, traders are assigning a 70% probability that SpaceX will conclude its first trading day with a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion.
Despite the optimism and buzz surrounding the IPO, some analysts advise caution, asserting that SpaceX may be overvalued at $1.77 trillion. Concerns have been raised that the stock could face significant volatility and potential declines following its initial trading session.
