XRP experienced a notable downturn on Monday, with a 5% drop over the past 24 hours, bringing its trading value to $2.80. This decline raises concerns about the sustainability of its upward trajectory, particularly as it struggled to maintain a position above the critical $3 mark.
The daily candlestick chart reveals a classical descending triangle formation, indicative of a bearish continuation pattern. This pattern is characterized by a downward-sloping resistance trendline and a horizontal support line. A decisive close below the support trendline could instigate a further sell-off, with forecasts suggesting a potential price target near $2.07, which would represent a significant 26% decline from current levels.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, XRP is trading below both the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing bearish bias. However, the 200-day SMA, positioned at $2.52, may offer some support to bulls and stave off a deeper correction.
The relative strength index (RSI) has also shown a notable decline, dropping from 50 to 39 in the last day, indicating mounting downward momentum. XRP’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has entered the 0.5–0.6 range, a historical marker frequently associated with local price tops. With over 94% of XRP’s supply currently profitable, there is a considerable risk of increased sell-side pressure. A similar scenario was observed in 2017, 2021, and early 2025, where heightened profit-taking preceded sharp market corrections, hinting that traders should be vigilant in the coming days.
Despite the current pullback, some analysts maintain a bullish outlook for XRP in the long run. The weekly candle chart remains optimistic, presenting a bull flag pattern that dates back to the November 2024 rally. Projections from analysts suggest a potential price rise to $15, with crypto analyst CryptoBull estimating a price target of $5 by October.
Further analysis from Egrag Crypto pointed out that, while lower time frames warrant close scrutiny, the overarching trends on higher time frames remain robust. His observations include the formation of an ascending triangle on the monthly chart, with an ambitious price target of $27.
Additionally, XForceGlobal has indicated a bullish macro outlook for XRP through Elliott Wave analysis, forecasting a cycle top that could extend beyond $20.
As markets fluctuate, it remains crucial for investors to conduct thorough research and consider the inherent risks associated with trading in the cryptocurrency space.
